LET'S MAKE A WISH FOR INDEPENDENCE.

So that's how Wales is going to get Independence. It appears that's what many supporters think. This is the way it is going to happen. Wish hard enough, fingers crossed and it will appear.

There is another group who seem to believe that if Westminster treats Wales badly enough, the Welsh people will rise up in  revolution.

A third and enthusiastic group are convinced that through the efforts of Yes Cymru, Independence is inevitable.

We could wait for Scotland to do it and then jump on the bandwagon. That however is out of Wales control.

Of course Independence is not going to happen through any of these routes.

So. I ask myself, what are the thousands, crying out for Independence, actually doing to bring it on. 

The conclusion. Except for a notable minority. Very little.

We see children in poverty, homes bought up as second homes while Welsh people are homeless. We see a potentially vibrant Welsh economy stagnating. We are bullied from Westminster and an impotent Welsh government closing their eyes to it and what do we do. We talk, we debate , we sometimes shout a little, but we do nothing.

Oh yes. You go to these rallies. Well it's a day out, isn't it.

I know.  You would go to the Labour party meeting and tell them what you think, but it's darts night or strictly or celebrity. But you do your bit on Twitter or Facebook.

Yes, bread and circuses are alive and well in Wales.

So what is this, doing your bit, mean?  Telling all who will listen that lots of other small countries do it, so Wales can do it.

It doesn't necessarily follow. That they have different economies, different cultures and different people. That they clearly wanted it more, is disregarded, but then, it's worth shouting about. 

Then,Wales is not too poor, while it's opponents dangle a £13.7 billion deficit in front of the Welsh public. The fact that about two thirds of it will be removed by the act of Independence alone, is rarely explained.

None of these, getting to be almost throw away lines, will wash with the wider Wales public. They don't particularly care about how other countries function. They want to know how Wales will function. Will an Independent Wales be able to pay its way and will an Independent Wales be a better Wales. Will they be better off.

The technicalities will come later, but until you cross this bridge.

So how do you do it, this sharing of a vision. At the moment it's shared with about a thousand others at most, in a Facebook group, or Twitter. 

Only another one and a half million to go.

Here's a tale to help you on your way.

In the constituency of Blaenau Gwent, a Labour stronghold.  The Labour Party attempted to impose a candidate for the election, on the 

constituency and against the wishes of the local party, who had their own local candidate. 

The Labour Party would not relent, so a group left the party and set up their own political party to fight the election. It was to become the People's Voice. It was a single issue party. The right for local people to choose their own candidate.

The People's Voice had little campaign organisation, little money and were opposed by an established political party campaign.

The People's Voice overturned a previous Labour majority of 19000 and turned it to a 9000 majority of their own.

They did it with a small dedicated group of activists who worked tirelessly. They leafleted continuously through letterboxes, town squares, market days and sporting events. They left leaflets at sympathetic venues. Adverts in local papers. All telling a single message. They sought donations for their work. And they won.

The moral of this story. You can overcome great odds, you can win over the public, but it takes real belief, real dedication and real hard work. 

Independence is going to be a roll your sleeves up graft, not the genteel exchanges presently being displayed.

Imagine small groups across Wales, working in the same way as People's Voice, promoting Independence. 

Then you won't need to make a wish.

There is a Part 2.

New Wales. New Way.

 # A case for Welsh Independence.

After the charade in the Sennedd about Independence, it is back where it belongs. With the people. It is too important to be left with politicians anyway.

They,  it appears, have given up on the future of Wales.

Welsh Labour's plan for the future, is not to have a plan.  The new way forward is " a strong devolution settlement ".  Is this the " strong devolution settlement " agreed just three years ago ( 2017 Devolution Settlement ) as a good, long lasting settlement.  Now described by the same Welsh Labour government as outdated and not fit for purpose.

Plaid Cymru are floundering over the issue and the other parties  are irrelevant to Wales future.

So. it's Independence. It really is the only way.  The task is to convince the Welsh people. Convince them with credible argument.

A clear case has to be made. Something that hasn't been done so far. A modest first step in that direction.

The first step in a People's Plan. 

Wales is too small.  Wales is too poor.  Wales economy is too weak.. So it goes on.

Wales pays out more than it takes in and depends on Westminster to cover the difference.  The infamous deficit.

This to make us think we have to continue to be that sticky out bit attached to England.  That Wales can't stand on it's own feet.

What is ignored, is that within people's lifetime,  Wales was the industrial powerhouse of the UK.

And within recent history, Wales was an industrial powerhouse of the world.

If Wales had been an independent nation at that time, it would have been one of the wealthiest and influential in the world.

The problem was however, that Wales never controlled or got long term benefits from that wealth.  That went elsewhere.

What also has to be remembered,  is that Wales only has to support 3.2 million people and provide high quality, high paid employment to half that number. 

England's economy by comparison has to support 55 million people and. 39 million jobs.  They are not more innovative than the Welsh, have relatively fewer. national resources, consume more than it provides and although they have more larger enterprises, they are invariably owned by foreign companies.

Wales has nothing to learn from the English economy.

So now we have to do things differently.

There are four essential elements.

A united Wales.

The economic case.

A different approach.

And for everyone who has an ambition for a better Wales to play a part.

This is intended to be a People's Plan.  For all to contribute.  Through this exchange a coherent, credible way forward for Wales to take control of its future will take shape.

The first step.

An independent Wales must be a united Wales and the Welsh Labour government has done no favours here.

They have managed to alienate the deprived Valley communities and the disconnected North.

No mean feat.

Two decades of Welsh Labour administration has witnessed the poorest communities of twenty years ago, at the start of devolution, remain the poorest today.  Hardly an endorsement of socialist values of redistribution of wealth.

The North, for it's part feel abandoned, and the neglect by Welsh Labour government has had the consequence of  the political shift there.

The poor links between North and South Wales, particularly transport, are a major impediment to the One Wales aim.

People of the North of the country can travel to Leeds, Newcastle and London, quicker than  to it's own Capital city,

The Welsh government has had twenty years of devolution and has failed to address the the issue.

The problem is that the Welsh government, over the past decades, have been minding Wales on behalf of Westminster.  They have been given the rules to follow and a bit of money, in order to stop the natives becoming restless.

The Welsh Labour government can see no future where Wales is not tied to England.  Accordingly all infrastructure decisions are directed at connection to England.

The Welsh government always has one eye looking over the border, instead of keeping both eyes on Wales.

There are already two arterial road connections.  In North and South Wales.  Both running West to East.

The money being spent on the Heads of the Valley road, another West to England link, could have been allocated to improving North/South road links.  Yes, before some wise critic jumps in,  the money was mainly EU grant money, but it was awarded there, because that's what the government asked for. The EU gives priority to schemes linking communities within small nations so its would likely, have been granted to that end. ( had we asked ).

The Barry report,  commissioned by the Wales Govt to examine an all Wales rail network, makes no reference to a North /South rail investment.  All concentration was, once again on West to East.

However, we are where we are.

Any plausible Independence plan must address these issues.  They are however long term in planning and investment.

Our immediate task is to move to unification with short term measures.  To demonstrate that Independence is for all of Wales.

Many of the Valley problems can be addressed by concentrating investment there.  It must be an early policy decision in our plans.  They are presently areas without hope.  Independence is pointless unless it can provide that hope.

North Wales believes it is disconnected, abandoned.

The first step here is for a North Wales Sennedd.  A Sennedd 2.  Not a Welsh government office, not a token, but a fully functioning section of the Welsh Assembly.  All AS/MS members of North Wales constituencies will be based  there, as will their staff and government administration.

The business of the Sennedd can be conducted by video and digital means.  Such links to be to the most modern and efficient system,  for this is the future of Welsh government.

Even when the physical links are improved, it is envisaged that this system will remain.

Accepting there may be occasion when gatherings in Cardiff bay will be required.

The people of North Wales will have a centre of Welsh government that they can relate to.  Representatives and government administration more accessible..

Mid Wales is not forgotten, however a Sennedd 3 is not feasible.  The virtual Assembly arrangements apply equally to that region.

This is only a start, but a positive start.  

There is a cost, but that's the price of democracy.

The Welsh economy, the biggest obstacle to any plan for Wales to look after itself.

 Or so we are constantly told .

So to the Welsh economy. 

And this deficit, is it real and is it important.

First. To debunk a few economic myths.

The UK economy is supporting Wales.  Wales ( and the other devolved nations ) are a drag on the UK economy.  That's the often repeated story some would have us believe. An economic myth.

England is 86% of the UK economy.  Even imagining the other three devolved nations were all doing very badly, it would only account for about 14% of the UK economic activity. Hardly enough to be a drag. No. These accusations are a smokescreen to hide the fact that the problem is England and that Wales is doing it's bit to help them out.

Wales supports England with free water, free electricity and revenue from Welsh businesses.  A rented office in London with three people can be the HQ of a company based in Wales,  employing 250 people and making £50 million.  The profits go to London and the tax revenue to England.  That's the way it works.

And then there's the borrowing.

The Westminster government borrows money for it's spending plans or overspending.  It then gives Wales it's share for the Welsh government spending plans.

That's what they would have us believe.

In the five years from 2015 to 2020, the UK  National Debt has risen by over £500 billion ( and still rising ).  This money to finance UK spending plans and the deficit.

In these five years Wales share of should have been, per capita,  about £25 billion.  Indeed within the Welsh budget is a figure, currently at £2.2 billion per year, as Wales contribution to repayment of the debt.

In reality, the 2015 Devolution spending agreement allocates less than £1 billion spread over five years for investment in the Welsh economy.

Even with the exceptional support payments for coronavirus, Wales has still received less than £4 billion.

Wales is allocating £2.2 billion a year to repay a myth.  It would have been better off just keeping the repayments.

The truth is that the borrowing that has led to this Debt is as a result of financing England's spending plans and economic incompetence.

So to the deficit. Another economic smoke and mirrors

Wales, it is said, spends more than it earns and therefore has a financial ( fiscal ) deficit.

Is this so and is it important.

It is argued that in the Welsh economy,  Wales does not raise the revenue from taxation to pay it's way.  That it raises considerably less than the UK average, per head of population.

The reasons.  The wages in Wales are below average, as is business efficiency, productivity and profits.

With regard to spending,  Wales spends more than the average on benefit payments.  

The amount of deficit is arrived at by a study by Cardiff University, on behalf of the Welsh Govt.  This is generally accepted as Wales official deficit.

This shortfall is then covered by money from Westminster.  Hence Wales is reliant on Westminster.

So is this figure accurate and does it reflect the true state of the Welsh economy.

The answer is, no one really knows.

The authors of the report, present it with an important proviso.

" Individual data for Wales is difficult to find, as most is collected on an England and Wales basis.  Most of the data used are estimates the Office of National Statistics ".

HM Revenue and Customs who collect the taxes also state, that in allocating taxes between the four nations " For some taxes estimates are arrived at, using the best available data and statistical techniques, including assumptions and adjustments where necessary ".

Much of the problem appears to be in the allocation of taxes such as VAT and corporation tax, when the ownership of companies located in Wales lie outside Wales.

The report also states.

" Estimates presented reflect Wales fiscal position under current constitutional arrangements and as such are not a reflection of an Independent Wales ".

The statement acknowledges that spending decisions and revenue streams are affected by UK policy decisions.

So lots of estimates, assumptions, adjustments and provisos. relating to Wales economy.

With regard to spending, much of this relatively high spending on benefit payments is concentrated mainly on state pensions and unemployment and in work benefits.

This reflects the high proportion of older retired people.  The lower than average earnings affecting the in work benefits paid out.

There is no normal accounting mechanism for arriving at Wales income and expenditure. .Most of the revenue is not a record of actual money raised but an assessment based on comparison.

Much of the spending is based on an assessment of what Wales ought to pay towards UK wide spending.

So let's begin.

Wales raises £27.1 billion in revenue.

It spends £40.8 billion.

Hence a deficit of £13.7 billion. Wales can't pay it's way

Hang on though. Some of this spend is allocated expenditure of which, an Independent Wales wouldn't want and has no responsibility for.

So £40.8 billion.

£2.9 billion of spending is attributed to something called accounting and EU transactions.  Is it accurate,  is it real, is it necessary.  It is not Public Service spending by Wales.  So we will remove it.

£37.9 billion.

Then you have what is quaintly called " a non identified amount ".  This is what the UK government says we must pay towards things not directly related to Wales.

Public sector debt interest.  £2.2 billion.

Defence.  £1.8 billion.

International aid.  £0.5 billion.

Border Agency costs.  £250 million.

BBC.  Pensions and health costs for Britons abroad.

Total. £5.4 billion.

A Wales government would not be committed to these costs.  Nor are they fair.

At the present levels of per capita spending,  Wales is spending more than almost any other European country on defence.

The level of debt interest repayment allocated, is the equivalent of an ongoing per capita repayment of  the full UK debt,  even though Wales has not had a per capita share.  Nor indeed any say in it's accumulation.

Wales is expected to contribute to commitments made without consulting Wales. Projects to pay for without consulting Wales.  Borrowing without consulting Wales

HS2 £60 billion, and rising.  Cross Rail £19 billion. Cross rail 2 £32 billion. The so called Northern Powerhouse. £60 billion.

All in England all agreed without consulting the devolved nations.  Indeed as the Barry report highlights.  HS2 will have an adverse affect on the Welsh economy of £150 million per year.

So £5.4 billion we remove that.

So down to £32.5 billion.

One more.  The deficit contains £1.7 billion of capital investment. This again is not revenue or fiscal spending. So we remove that.

So down to £30.8 billion.

Fiscal spending.  Money for running the country's services  is in total.

£30.8 billion.

Less

£27.1 billion revenue ( and even that's a bit dodgy )

£3.7 billion.  Hardly a deficit at all.

Wales economy is influenced by UK policy decisions and the inability of the Welsh government to make influential decisions.

There is a net migration into Wales of 3000 pensioners per year.  They are attracted to the quality of life and environment of coastal Wales.

The Institute of Welsh Affairs has estimated the cost to the Welsh economy of £2 billion.  There is also the pressure on the health and social care service from the influx.

The inward net migration at such numbers would , over ten years, have created a pensioner population bigger than the combined indigenous populations of West Wales coastal towns of Cardigan, Aberporth, Aberaeron, New Quay and Aberystwyth.

This is not a point about ageism, but economics.  The inward pensioners will have paid their working lives contributions of income tax and NI contributions elsewhere, someone else's revenue. Wales has the cost of their retirement.  The Welsh government can do nothing about this situation under present conditions.

The study also finds that future economic scenario also poses problems.

Wales is projected to have a higher than average pensioner population and a lower than average working, tax paying age group. A situation that doesn't help the Welsh economy.

One solution is to attract inward migration of working age, tax payers.  To do so Wales would have to have control of its own immigration policy.

Still with the deficit.

Revenue.

The report states that Wales revenue from income tax and NI contributions is significantly lower than the UK average.  £1690 per head lower.  Caused, as we have seen, by lower than average wages.

The report authors state that if these revenues were raised to the UK average it would increase Wales revenue by £5.4 billion.

This is achieved by raising wages and salaries to the UK average .

Wales average wages and salaries are estimated at 89% of the rest of the UK.

To do so  will require investment in improving training in worker and management skills, as well as improved production technology.

It also requires new thinking in the type of industry developed by and attracted to Wales.

A self governing Wales would have the means of investment in the same way as all other nations.  It borrows it.

If Wales could borrow at the same percentage of GDP as the more prudent countries, Norway, Austria, for example, it could borrow £30 billion.  The equivalent, per head of population, to about £600 billion on a UK level.

That ought to do it.

So there we have an additional £5.4 billion revenue.  Wales is paying its way, even a bit over.  And £30 billion to invest.

The clever people at Cardiff University could probably find a few billion more. However they won't help unless commissioned by important people, or there's a Nobel nomination on offer.

There will be of course, additional costs for an Independent Wales.  In a Justice system, Treasury,  Revenue collection. Some of these though, already exist in varying stages.

There will also be savings. No Wales Secretary of State office. £5 million saving there.

But paying our way is not enough. There is a limit to what can be raised by domestic earnings and spending.  Wales must generate wealth.  Wealth to reduce the costs of borrowing. For education, health, social care, housing roads, transport infrastructure and to regenerate our depressed towns and communities. In short improve the welfare of the Welsh people.

How do we start. Where do we start.

Wales economy is a mish mash.  Economics through reaction.

Thousands of well paid skilled jobs were lost in steel and coal, together with well paid skilled jobs in the supply chain. Engineering companies and the like.

The panic policy to replace them meant that Wales was inundated with public sector jobs shipped across from England. DVLA, Passport Office, Statistics Office, Companies House and plenty of Unemployment offices. These together with an  increase in public sector employment generated by Wales itself.

Wales has a higher proportion of civil servants per head. than London.

These are not jobs in wealth creating industry. The study shows that the public sector workers raise more revenue than private sector workers.  The reason however, because of low pay in the private sector, rather than a high earning public sector.

Revenues in Wales are more sensitive to UK policy decisions due to the higher. percentage of Welsh workers in the public sector.

And yet we keep blundering on.

And so to the Welsh government magical spending announcements.  £10 million extra for this or that.  They are creating an illusion. It doesn't come from the back of the sofa, it comes from somewhere else.  Some areas become a priority, so someone else loses out.

It must be so. Wales has a fixed budget.

That will only change when Wales can grow and control it's own economy.

Wealth can only be created through industry and business and through Wales resources.  But not as we know it.

New Wales requires new thinking.  A new approach.

Wales produces wealth.  Wealth from businesses in Wales and from it's resources.  Not enough and not maximised.

The GDP of Wales is about  £75 billion.  Although Wales doesn't actually have a GDP as it doesn't raise revenues.  The figure is estimated using Wales GVA. ( the value of Wales goods and services ) and calculating GDP from there.  So it's another estimate.

This is highly likely to have underestimated Wales wealth.

This GDP must be grown. Not however the growth of old that devours scarce resources and damage the environment.

Take a journey through the Valleys.  See the greenery, the scenery, it wasn't always like this.  The New Wales approach must never reverse these improvements.

Wales can achieve growth by embracing a greener, high value industrial strategy.

The shortcomings in the present industrial strategy, is shown in the concentration on supporting job creating business rather than wealth creating.

The jobs created by these headline companies are of course welcome.  These businesses however, almost invariably take their wealth elsewhere.  Few have their headquarters in Wales and the profits and revenue goes elsewhere.

So to the new approach.

Wales produces more electricity than it uses. Twice as much, with the surplus valued at over £1.5 billion.  With investment it would be significantly more.  Wales gets none of this.  The surplus goes into the National Grid, to be used  by, guess who.

Severn Trent Water uses water supplied by Wales.  They make an annual profit of £500 million.  Wales, the supplier, gets nothing.

If they had the money and were allowed to.  The Welsh government could have invested in the Swansea lagoon project and other similar sites identified in Wales.  For a little over £1.5 billion, Wales could have a controlling interest in these ventures.

It is estimated that the value of electricity generated would exceed £120 million a year for anticipated 120 years.

The investment would be recovered in less than 20 years with Wales enjoying at least a further 100 years of revenue.

The UK government argued that the price being asked for the electricity from this source was too high.  However this would not be the case with the Welsh government investment.

Furthermore the lagoons offered more than just electricity generation to the Welsh economy.  Something ignored by the UK government.

The lagoon at Swansea, the most advanced with regard to planning, would also have been a major outdoor and tourist attraction.

It offered a marina, four marine parks, facilities for the docking of large cruise liners, as well as hotels and housing.  It would have provided electricity to 155000 households.

This was of no interest to the UK government, when rejecting the project, but would have been a multi million pound boost to the local and wider Welsh economy.

Wales must take a new approach to maximizing it's resources.  The philanthropic attitude must cease.  These resources are a means of income to Wales and the future has to be, nothing is for nothing.

Wales, as an independent country would no longer be restricted from makjing decisions regarding large scale energy projects, as it is at present.  

The potential from this sector is huge.

There are presently 16 enterprises in Wales developing marine energy projects.

They have invested, so far £96 million.  Their future investment is projected as £8.3 billion.

They would seek approximately £2 billion across the UK in revenue support.n

They also presently rely on UK consent for large scale energy projects.

The North Wales lagoon  Llandudno to Prestatyn proposal is anticipated to produce electricity for one million homes, 90% of Wales domestic requirement. In addition, among the additional benefits, the lagoon also offers coastal erosion protection.

An Independent Wales government would not need permission for these projects.  Furthermore investment by the Welsh government would reduce the need for revenue support.

It is estimated that for every £10 million invested in this sector £2.5 million is added to Wales GVA.

The New Wales approach would be to invest in these projects.  To become partners.  To protect Welsh interests.  To prevent benefits going outside Wales.  The companies developing the projects would of course have reasonable returns.  But so would Wales.

Wales has first class research in this field, has natural resources and ideal marine conditions for this energy production.

It is argued that through these projects and the others that follow, Wales can be leaders in this technology.

The export of this technology, skills, knowledge and intellectual property is estimated over future years to be worth £76 billion worldwide.  Wales can be at the forefront.

An Independent Wales would not need permission from anyone for these initiatives.

Marine power generation, together with Wales other carbon free energy sources, would make Wales a major player in energy generation.  Already an electricity exporter, investment will only increase that capacity.

Electricity in Wales has the real potential for a multi billion pound industry, or alternately used in Wales to provide cheaper energy for its own purposes.  Our choice.

Norway is the most successful country in utilizing energy generation.  It has become wealthy from energy production.  Norwegian electricity is sold throughout Europe.  It is owned by the Norwegian government.

We could do that.

The Scottish government owns the Scottish domestic water supply. Scottish household water charges are about £43 per home cheaper than in Wales.  That's over £50 million per year extra spending for the Welsh economy.

Wales must be prepared to take public ownership of it's resources.

The Welsh economy has lower than average productivity.  The businesses in Wales produce lower than average profits and Welsh workers earn lower than average wages.

Wales has a higher proportion of small and medium sized enterprises.

Although these have more potential for innovation , flexibility and growth, than large enterprise, in Wales they have suffered decades of underinvestment.  Underinvestment in technology, management and worker skills training.

The priority must be to channel more investment and professional support to small and medium sized enterprises.  They employ over 75% of the Welsh workforce.  They are more likely to be based in Wales and pay their taxes, in Wales.  They have more potential for flexibility and to grow the workforce and the business.  The workers trained in multi skills, easier to adapt to changing technology.

The Welsh government pays out millions of pounds to attract enterprises to Wales and provide financial support for them.  They are often larger headline companies.  These companies have no loyalty to Wales.  Mostly the Welsh government puts the money in and elsewhere someone else takes it out.

Most of these businesses do not generate wealth for Wales, other than the jobs they create.  Those jobs can be lost in a boardroom meeting far away.

In future Wales Govt, when injecting money, must ensure an adequate financial return.

Wales has only received, per capita, 75% of the UK average investment in research and development.  And, per capita, 75% in investment in infrastructure and transport.

Wales has only received 1% of UK investment in rail despite having 11% of the UK network.

This lack of investment has clearly retarded Wales development.

Wales has world leading medical and scientific researchers, it also has innovators as shown by the small company working on hydrogen powered vehicles.

Wales is very good at this level, but less good at the development and production related to this research and innovation.  It is generally others that have gained.

This is an area of great potential for the Welsh economy and Wales must be much more proactive here.

A government of Wales will need to be more positive and involved to create jobs through the creation of enterprises.

Public procurement of goods and services in Wales is worth over £6 billions per year.

The NHS in Wales spends about £1.6 billion per year on equipment and services. 

 ( not including the abnormal spending for coronavirus ).  Many  companies in Wales adapted their outputs , helping the production of PPE, in the present crisis.  Some of these companies should be encouraged to continue in what is a  multi million pound market, with the potential to develop a significant export market.

Already this market and these Welsh producers have become the subject of interest  from investment companies across the border, to add to their portfolios.

This cannot be allowed to happen. Investment and development in this area should be for the benefit of Wales and Welsh business, not profiteering by others.

Procurement by public bodies in Wales is subject to regulations set down by UK government.  New Wales will no longer be restrained by those rules and should actively practice positive discrimination towards Welsh based companies in its procurement policy.

Tourism in Wales is a major business. It is worth about £6 billion per annum.

Wales spends less on promoting tourism and Wales attraction than any other UK nation.  Far less.

Wales attracts less tourists than the other UK nations.

Tourism is an area of great potential growth.

Also tourism is an industry where most of the spending accrues to Wales.

It is an area where more support must be directed.  It's an economic imperative.

The Welsh government has been told in various studies that Wales is seen as a relaxing and beautiful place.  However these are qualities that they share with competitor areas such as the Lake district, West Country, Scotland and Ireland.

Wales is seen less favourably as places for young people and unbelievably not as a place for festivals, arts and culture.. Knowledge and awareness of Wales is weak among international tourists.

What have the Welsh government and tourist bodies been doing.

The Welsh government happily pours millions into companies like Ford to protect 3000 jobs, yet an industry worth billions and employing over 150000 people is underfunded..

If the Welsh government had someone who could count it would be helpful.

Wales is one of a few European countries without a tourist tax.  If Wales set a charge of just £1 per night, it would raise about £10 million per year.

This money could then be used to increase the wages of low paid workers in the tourist and hospitality sector and help with training.

Workers with greater incentive and skills, will help towards a more attractive and professional tourist and hospitality experience for visitors.

Transport and Exports.

The Welsh public voted recently for the view that there is a better world beyond Europe.

By the same argument there is a better world beyond England.

Of course England is an important market, but not the only market and arguably not the most important.

If we become over reliant on contact with England, trade with England, it is conceivable, indeed likely we will lose more favourable markets elsewhere.

There is no suggestion of severing links with England, but future relationship must be on a more equitable basis, with the priority what's best for Wales.

As inevitably,  Wales links with Europe and beyond, became stronger and contact more regular.  Wales must prepare for this, develop new thinking.

International trade and diplomatic links are beyond this brief resume.

Some ideas though.

Welsh container ports must be developed.

Presently goods from Wales and. indeed Ireland, are transported across Wales and England to be ferried to Europe or by container farther afield.,

A medium sized container ship leaving from one of the many Welsh ports capable of such traffic, can carry the equivalent of 12000 lorry loads.

New Wales, new thinking.

A summary.

This is not nor is it meant to be, a comprehensive business plan for an independent Wales.

It is an invitation to all interested, to add their ideas. It is the start of something much bigger.

It has shown however, that Wales has nothing to fear in striking out on it's own.  Indeed it shows there is everything to gain,

Wales is not to small, indeed it size can be a positive advantage. Countries of a similar size are doing very well thank you.  Smaller countries such as Litchenstein and Monte Carlo, who produce nothing material and yet are wealthy countries. Its about maximising resources.

Wales is not poor.  The potential for wealth creation is huge.

The trick for Wales is to prevent others from taking it.

Wales can control its its own destiny. It is not a Utopia, but an economic and political reality.

The purpose.  To create a fair and equitable society and improve the welfare of all.

Independence is within our grasp.

The first step is to reach a target of 40% public support. Once that target is reached Independence is inevitable.

Just think, that means that each of the 450000 (21%) supporters, needs to convince just ONE other person. How difficult is that.

Don't take any notice of the noise around you that's just politicians afraid to poke their heads out of their shells, or the pro union media and the irrelevant Tories.

So we are ready to go,

Now for the bad news.

Politicians with  vision and courage to break old ties, are in short supply in Wales. So it will either take a road to Damascus moment for the present lot. Or a new breed willing to put themselves forward. Do it you have everything to gain.

Listen to the words of the late, great John Hume " You are in politics to get things done not to chase votes ".

The good news is that we don't actually have to do anything.

Mark Drakeford. Wales First Minister, has repeatedly said.  " The Union is a voluntary association of Nations ".

So all he has to do is read this and tell Boris that, thanks very much, but we have a better deal.  We will get back to him when we are ready to discuss trade arrangements etc.

 

 

Where next for Welsh Labour

The Welsh Labour Government's popularity has risen, so the pollsters tell us, from 36% favourable to 65% favourable, since March.

Given that this period has been dominated by the covid pandemic, it can be assumed that the rise in popularity is due to their handling of the crisis.

So what next.  When covid doesn't dominate, when the economy needs to be rebuilt, when the health service and education become priorities again.

It has to be said, the record over the last 20 years of devolution hasn't been great and things are set to be a lot worse.

How the Welsh government goes forward will define their future and that of Wales.

The handling of the pandemic has suited their style of government, slow, methodical and not requiring much imagination.

Going forward that won't do. They should be looking, not at the 65% favourable now, but at the 36% favourable polling before the pandemic. That was the true picture and they have to ask themselves why they are regarded so unfavorably in their handling of the economy, health, education and so on, for that is their future problems.

They have had problems in connecting with the UK government throughout the covid crisis. Worryingly the First Minister made light of the fact.  He has done Wales no favours in that attitude. The lack of cooperation, shares of resources and money to reflect Wales unique problems, has cost Wales even to the extent of suffering more deaths.

The relationship with the UK government, and its clear English bias , is the norm and is set to continue.

It would be foolish to think that Wales will magically become a priority or even less of an afterthought, even with a change of party in Westminster.

The future is going to be difficult and will require a different leadership with the imagination to make different innovative and perhaps confrontational decisions than in the past. A dynamic Government prepared to stand up for Wales.

Wales hasn't had full support from Westminster, nor has it had the chance to reach its potential as a Nation. The money directed to Wales during thee pandemic is only it's share of a policy primely to support England. So no more nonsense about how Westminster is supporting the Welsh economy. 

Wales needs, deserves, a leadership that will stand up for Wales and, yes, to stand up to Westminster.

The time for wringing of hands and complaining is over.

The First Minister, Mark Drakeford, has repeated throughout the present crisis, that all his decisions have been directed first and foremost by the needs of Wales.

The people of Wales trust that this continues to be the priority going forward. 

If not then reaching that 36%  favourable standing will be an ambition that Welsh Labour will only dream of.

 

Not another Welsh poll!

#Not another Welsh poll!

Another Welsh poll,  another academic Mystic Meg.

Well actually the same academic,  the same pollsters  and the same client as two months ago.

I did indeed comment then, when I considered that academics were having an unhealthy influence on our democratic process.

But here we go again.  Cardiff University pollsters,  Cardiff University Professor analysing, ITV commissioning.

Now I know that there isn't much for them to do at the moment,  but really,  two months.

And what a change.  Almost unbelievable.

I am,  I admit,  sceptical of these polls.  Same people carrying them out, same person analysing,  1021 people polled,  the same as last time.

Now I don't know about you,  but I have never been approached by a pollster.  Nor do I know anyone who has.

I am not suggesting anything untoward,  but if all those people are from Cardiff University,  its hardly random polling.

Anyway back to the poll.

I did throw a little cold water on the results and analysis last time and there is nothing in this present poll to ease my scepticism.

I did suggest that the previous findings were premature,  however I was a little surprised how quickly realism would set in.

Tories down 11 points.  You have to have some sympathy.  Two  months  ago they were wetting their pants at the thought that maybe,  just maybe,  whatshisname,  their leader in Wales was on course for First Minister.  Who would have thought that Boris would have made such a b.....,s up.

Almost everyone except Cardiff University.

Elsewhere  there was nothing dramatic.  The professor divvying things up  pretty evenly.  There were gains for Labour and Plaid Cymru,  but not enough to get excited about. 

They can always be adjusted in two months time.

Independence on its way,  is the headline.  Well Adam Price thinks so.  There he is,  waving the flag with one hand,  while grabbing for a life raft with the other.

A life raft called Yes Cymru.

It is indeed the best showing in the polls for Independence.

At this rate we will start to get excited at about the same time that the Sennedd is celebrating its Diamond anniversary.

The concern for Plaid Cymru from this poll, is that a quarter of their voters don't support Independence.  If they are not convincing their own,  what chance with the sceptical others.

A positive from this poll,  although is was presented as a glass half empty,  was that less than a quarter seek abolition of the Sennedd.  That ,  down from almost fifty percent at the time of devolution.

Well  professor,  you were pretty far out from your projections last time.  I noticed that you reminded of your warning on volatility,  Yeah right.

I did say  the last time,  that I was prepared to put a friendly fiver on a  Labour dominated administration with Plaid.  I still think my money's safe.  If that is the case then its odds on that Kirsty Williams and Sir Dafydd will be back to the cheap seats. 

So professor,  don't think I take pleasure in pointing out these shortcomings. and in the spirit of cooperation,  I have a crystal ball that used to belong to Tommy Cooper that you can borrow anytime.

#Plaid Cymru. What are they all about?

The Party of Wales. Bit of a cheek. With more watching Newport County home games, than Plaid has members.

The membership is largely confined to the northwest of Wales. The valleys a barren land for Plaid.  Rhondda a bit of an exception,  but that's more of a personality thing.

Plaid Cymru. Party of Wales.  Rhan o Cymru.  Part of Wales is more appropriate.

And they are not moving forward.  Not gaining votes or seats.  Yes,  they will point to this poll and that.  Ahead of Labour.  Clutching at straws.  The fact is, they are the third party in the Senneddd  and the most optimistic polls point to them remaining that way.

Future projections,  if they are to be believed,  point to the challenge to Labour coming, not from Plaid Cymru, but from the Tories.

Leanne Wood was dumped,  not moving forward fast enough , so it was said, ( I think its because she's a socialist ).

There doesn't seem to be much forward momentum since though.

Plaid Cymru's Independence rally

Stagnating.  That's the best you can say.

So why?  What does Plaid stand for?

Therein lies the problem. The public doesn't really know.

They are perceived as a Welsh speaking ,  middle class,  elitist Party and it doesn't help that the leadership reinforce that perception.

The Chair. A member of the broadcasting fraternity, who writes Welsh language comedy programmes.  

Perhaps necessary qualifications for the role.

The Chief Executive.  Moved over from Friends of the Earth.  Maybe to help with the green credentials..

There is little sign of heavyweight impact in policy in that appointment.

The Leader.  Its no good playing the working class background card, if academia is the image showing through.  If you are out of touch with the voters.  You have to look people in the eye,  not talk over their heads.  

This call for reparation.  Headline grabbing to no purpose.

So what do they stand for.

A green economy,  fair and equal society. Jobs for all.  So whats new.

The system doesn't really work on a buggins turn basis, where its your turn to govern.

What does Plaid Cymru offer that's different.

It could be Independence.  A better Wales through an Independent Wales.  Well Plaid isn't convincing the Welsh public of that.

Despite Wales having a good share of voters disaffected with the present system, they are not flocking to them.

Plaid Cymru lacks conviction. As an established political party it has a platform,  an advantage.  However in the Independence movement it has ceded leadership to others.  Yes Cymru and others are leading the push,  not Plaid Cymru.

Plaid Cymru has announced the setting up of a Commission  on Independence.  A Commission.  The refuge of the clueless.

Twenty years after Devolution and with Independence supposedly at its core,  it still has to be told whether Independence works.

It is this lack of confidence and conviction that is a problem.

In the early days of devolution,  Independence was a word to be whispered,  in case it frightened the voters.

Then the Welsh Labour  government  lost it majority.  it was desperate for Plaid to prop it up.  There was the opportunity to insist that Independence to be put on the agenda.  Chance not taken.

The 2011 Plaid Cymru Sennedd election manifesto contained very little on Independence.  A  paragraph in fact.

The 2016 manifesto  concentrated on a Federal UK.  What is that all about?  We have what is supposedly a Federal UK.  Its not working. 

That was always going to be a non runner,  What Wales needs.  Full legislative  powers and economic autonomy.  are the very powers Westminster want to hang on to.

So what is it Plaid. ? You really don't believe in Independence, or are you afraid of it.?

The thing is, the persistent whining about the Welsh Labour government.  It's  becoming a mantra.

Further it is denigrating  not Welsh Labour , but the Government of Wales.  Giving ammunition to those who are not friends of Wales.  Those in Westminster and the English controlled media.

Yes you must hold the Welsh government to account, but if the motive is to embarrass the government you often embarrass the Nation.

The Welsh public know when things are wrong. What they want to know  how Plaid is going to to put it right.

Vague promises don't cut it,  as you are finding out.

The public is still waiting for Plaid to explain how Independence is going to work. Paying for Welsh water is hardly an economic plan. 

No Plaid I am afraid that the public realise , that neither you,  or any other party,  is going to make a significant difference under the present system.

It seems therefore you are stuffed. Destined to whither and die.

You have to do something different.  What about changing the system. What about self government.  A better Wales through an Independent Wales.

You don't seem keen on that though.

If you change your mind and you really want a go at government here's a clue.

Go for change. Down the self government route. ( sounds less radical than Independence ).

Address the main issues that concern people on Independence.

How are you going to do it.?  How are we going to afford it ?  How is it going to improve our lives.

Hammer it home at every opportunity. Remember Let's get Brexit done. That worked.

It should be front and centre with Plaid. Clear, precise, persuasive.  And for goodness sake sound as if you mean it.

So there you have it.  Independence must be Plaid Cymru's priority.

Unless of course you are happy with the sideline.  Or at best a junior partner in a future coalition.

The Labour Party leader's antisemitism dilemma.

Sir Kier Starmer leader of the Labour Party.  Pretty straightforward.  Until now.

Got rid of the Corbynites from the front bench. Few cheers there from the Parliamentary Labour Party ( right wing dominated helps ). Few cheers for his performance at PMQs.  In his element there.  Busy erasing Corbyn from the history of the Labour Party.  

And then came the first test of his leadership.  Oh dear.   Labour and antisemitism. Why does it cause them such a problem.

It is because there is this belief at the top of Labour, that if you clamp down hard enough you will get on top of it.  If you make it a taboo subject it will whither away.  Not strong leadership as many of his supporters have been parroting, but rather pressured into macho politics.  This rarely has a happy ending.

Cheers for his ruthlessness from his followers.  Just what the world needs now, another ruthless leader.

Beware the cheerleaders, they are notoriously fickle.

Most worrying however is that his actions have won plaudits from the Daily Mail.Already his supporters have their identity.  Starmertroopers they are labeled.  That's really going going to take the Labour Party in the right direction.

He has sacked RLB for the reason of contributing to an antisemitic conspiracy theory.  Now where did he got that one from.

RLB was wrong in the attribution of an activity to the Israeli secret service. 

It was a mistake. 

Antisemitic.  Are we to believe that the Israeli secret service doesn't get up to dodgy actions around the globe. As do the secret services of numerous other countries.  They could all teach RLB a thing or two about conspiracy theories. And are we supposed to believe that if she had made such an error involving, say, the Russian secret service, or South African secret service, she would have been sacked.

No it's the fact that in the Labour Party, Israel is off limits.

Sir Kier, he of supposed forensic and considered approach, is guilty of playing to the chosen audience. He can't resist it, he's a lawyer

It is right that we should condemn abusive and threatening behavior and language,  whoever it is directed against, but without favour.

Sir Kier Starmer has made promises, in this regard, that he should not have made and cannot deliver.

He should not have placed the issue of antisemitism as a priority of intolerance over and above BAME people, or disability discrimination or many of the other intolerances that pervade the Labour party. He is giving assurances to Jewish groups as if they have a superior status. That, in itself causing disquiet.

Before making these utterances he should follow the evidence.

The recent Labour Party's ( leaked ) Report. Shows that antisemitism is not widespread in the Labour Party.   Although these findings are unpalatable to sections of the Party, the fact is, it shouldn't have higher priority than issues of intolerance against  many other groups, given the facts.  That it is given such prominence, perhaps shows the strength of it's lobbying.

The language that is used by Starmer , such as " zero tolerance " and " tear antisemitism out by the roots ", is unhelpful and condemns his efforts to failure.

First. It is not clear, what to many, constitutes antisemitism.

A survey by the Jewish Policy Research  found that about 5% of the UK public were antisemitic.  But this figure increased to about 15% if certain questions were added.  Questions such as " do you think that Jews have too much power, proportional to their numbers ".  If the answer was affirmative, it was regarded that the respondent had antisemitic views.

No. The respondent has observed that a large number of large financial, industrial and commercial enterprises, are headed or owned by prominent Jewish people.  In the public mind this equates to influence and power and yes, disproportionate to Jewish numbers. 

Not antisemitism, but observation. 

Similarly if it was observed that such organisations and enterprise was headed or owned by Black people, there would probably be a similar conclusion.

Antisemitism is a complex issue Sir Kier.  Not to he treated as some infection to be squeezed out.

Why is antisemitism associated so strongly with the left.

Socialists speak out and criticise right wing regimes and right wing policies.  Activists go further and sometimes demonstrate against them.  

Whether it is against corruption in South Africa, right wing policies in South  America or Eastern Europe.

Such criticism is regarded as legitimate in the Labour Party, indeed often applauded. It is not racist or discriminatory.

The Israeli government is right wing and enact right wing policies.  This is fact not prejudice. The left speak out and criticise.  This is not regarded as legitimate, but antisemitic. Therefore the left are antisemitic.  

I know.  It doesn't make sense. But that's politics.

It is also the case that many on the left, in particular, are sympathetic annd supportive of the Palestinians.  This has put them on a clear collision course with Jewish politicians and Jewish pressure groups.

And not least this perception is a weapon for the right of the party ( we are expected to call them moderates ) to beat the left.

So antisemitism is a problem of the left. Wrong.

Of course some on the left hold antisemitic views. But it would be Sir Kier's next big mistake to believe that it is unique to that wing.

The survey by the Jewish Policy Research found that antisemitic views were held by about 15% of the public. The same percentage as was found among Labour Party supporters.

However, the survey found that a higher percentage, about 18% of Conservative supporters, hold antisemitic views.

The facts therefore tell you that the  Left are no more antisemitic than the general population.  But also that the Right are more antisemitic than the Left.

Sorry to burst the bubble.

However,  what this survey also shows, is the folly of the Labour leaders " zero tolerance " promise.

It shows that approximately 8 million of the UK population hold antisemitic views.

Importantly for the Leader the survey contradict the Labour Party report, with findings equates to 75000 Labour Party members hold antisemitic views.

If you add to that the discriminatory views against BAME , the disabled,  people on benefit, rough sleepers and so on.  Kier Starmer's scourge approach and zero tolerance,  is  going to leave him a very lonely man in the Labour party.

However detailed research by Jewish Voice for Labour found the opposite.  That there was little evidence of significant antisemitism in the Labour party. A lower percentage than the public at large and significantly lower than that of the Right.

Confused.  So, either Starmer is using a very big sledgehammer to crack a very small nut, or the size of the problem is beyond him.

Either way from Crown Prosecution Service to Witchfinder General style leadership is not the answer to Labours problems here.

Education, understanding and tolerance is a much better way.  This, together with an acceptance that intolerance is not exclusive to the left.

Why do I care.  I am not usually that concerned in the shenanigans of English dominated affairs across the bridge, unless it affects us in Wales. ( that not English in a racial sense, but English in a factual sense. ). 

However it is worrying that some Welsh politicians have subscribed to the hang them and flog them approach.  Deluding themselves that it is " strong leadership ". 

Rather than a tolerant, equitable and considered approach in Wales. An approach that has a far better chance of addressing a very real problem.

Welsh Conservatives. No such thing.

There are, of course, Conservatives in Wales.  However the term Welsh Conservatives gives an impression that they are different breed to those in the UK.  They are not.

Conservatives in Wales are not autonomous. They are not independent of their masters in London and their policies are those of Conservative HQ.

They follow these policies even in the Welsh Assembly.  UK policies take precedence.

Their constant criticism of the Welsh Government in the present crisis, is concentrated on, that they are not following UK Conservative Government guidelines. This regardless of what is in the best interests of Wales.

Their electoral success is more closely aligned to UK party popularity, than any other party in Wales. There are no membership numbers for Wales publicly available.

The are financed directly from London.

They are not a Welsh party, but an outpost of Conservative central.

They are not allowed independent thought.  Follow the Party line.

The former leader Andrew R T Davies,  hardly a free thinker,  was sent back to take charge of the farm, for questioning Party policy.

The present leader, whatshisname,  wont suffer that fate. No comments,  no opinions, quiet as a little mouse.

So who votes for these Conservatives in Wales?

The Tory voters in Wales are not so very different than those in England. A couple of steps down in wealth perhaps.

There are the land and property owners who vote Conservative to stop the nasty socialists dividing up their land.

Then the new property owners with a nice house ( and a nice mortgage ) on a new estate. They are Conservative because they are now a step up.  Anyway they couldn't possibly support Corbyn and his like.  Perhaps the present Labour party leader is more to their taste.  He is a Sir after all.

And there are the greedy money grabbers, made rich by Tory culture.

But they are not the majority. The majority who,  if you meet them in the street,  look almost normal.  that is until you look into their eyes.  Then you see,  they are hypnotized.  In a trance.  Like a religious sect moving towards paradise.

They must be hypnotised.  It is the only logical explanation for supporting a Party led by a man who's next truthful statement will be his first.  And in Wales.  A Welsh Secretary who is a messenger of Westminster,  rather than Wales representative.  Who tells us that Wales should be grateful for the handout from London.

Its the promise, isn't it.  The way to the promised land is by following the Tory path.  A place is reserved for followers and to prove it they will put the promise on the side of a bus.

Trust us, the message goes.  By blindly following, we are well on the way to getting rid of those nasty Europeans.  We are better off already.  This coronavirus has shown we can do without European holidays.  Who wants Spain when we have Margate.

Just in case however, Dominic Cummings has has kindly offered to undertake the sacrifice of travelling to Monte Carlo ( not to be confused with Durham ) for a month, to ensure it is safe for us Brits.

Not all of us can go, of course, just a few of the chosen ones.  But something to aspire to.

Just like austerity.  only the wealthiest are protected from it.  But true believers suffer for the lesser good.

The leader of the Conservatives in Wales is not in that top group,  but he is aspiring to it.

Recently, the Conservatives in Wales have raised their heads above the parapets.  They have a plan,  they said.  A plan to help groups affected by the crisis.  The Welsh Government were already giving out aid.  This was a different plan,  they said,  only costing £250 million.  They were a little bit miffed to be told that the Welsh Government didn't have the money.

Now I am not known for helping out selfish types,  but here's a tip.

Why doesn't what'shisname,  or Darren Miller,  the voice of Tories in Wales,  scoot off up the M4, with permission of course.  They could then tap the boy Chancellor for a small loan.  They don't have to justify it,  Tory's don't,  just argue they are in the same " Party " and the " Union ", all in together.

They can then return triumphant waving the cheque,  one up on Welsh Labour.

So why do people in Wales vote Conservative.  Not the self serving wealthy,  or the fantasy wealthy,  but the rest.

Conservatives in Wales are not going to be in power in the Welsh Assembly.  Nobody likes them or trusts them,  to join any coalition with them.  So they are not going to be deciding policy.  They aren't even very good in opposition.

At UK level the Tory party and Government are led by self serving fantasists.  Sensible people wouldn't want to support them,  would they?

So it has to be the trance.

Brought about by the sheer volume of promises.  By the belief that paradise is in the gift of the Tories and that only good is the prize of the followers.

The Welsh Labour Government should commission our world leading researchers to seek a vaccine against this hypnotic state.

This strain of selfishness in society will then be weakened and may eventually die out.

Why is Welsh Labour afraid of Independence?

#Why is Welsh Labour afraid of Independence?

Welsh Labour shy away from the Independence debate and yet it is an important constitutional issue,
They appear wedded to the Union.

Please can I have some more

Why?

Who do we mean by Welsh Labour in this context. Is it the Welsh Labour government, or the members.?
One of the problems is that Welsh Labour is too often defined by the actions of their AMs, or even UK Labour.

According to the public opinion polls, for what they are worth, between 250,000 and 650,000 people in Wales would support Independence, according to whichever poll you choose. it is therefore feasible that many of Welsh Labours members are among that number. However except for a few activists their views are not heard on the matter. Why don't they speak up, well perhaps  it's because they never have.

Why are Labour AMs,  The Welsh Labour government, afraid of Independence, or even raising the Independence debate?

Perhaps its the fear of Government, proper, real Government.
Presently the Government of Wales is a distribution centre. It has a lump of money given to it and it doles it out.

Wales is a passive recipient of an allocation of money.  the money is to provide public services.  Whether it is a fair allocation the Wales Government cannot decide. It cannot increase the total or control the amount, it just distributes it according to perceived priorities. Wales has no other income. They cannot borrow to invest, all major projects in Wales are at the discretion of Westminster. The Welsh Government's  help to business in the Covid crisis, was at the expense of other services. The dependence on Westminster has not been helpful to the Wales economy, think of  the failure to invest in the Swansea bay lagoon and electrification of the rail system to West Wales as two examples. Recent reports have also highlighted that Wales has only received 75% of the UK average investment in Transport infrastructure and Research and Development.

The Wales Labour supports the status quo, indeed agreed the financial settlement.

Twenty years of devolution, under this system and with a Wales Labour government, has led to a Wales, the poorest not only of the UK nations, but of the UK regions. With wages  in Wales significantly less than the UK average and business productivity lower. Education standards below average, 200,000 children in poverty and the Wales NHS in a mess (workers excepted.) Roads need fixing, public services cut and insufficient money to deal with increasing flood risks.

Welsh governments answer is to rely on the " benevolence" of Westminster to hand over the means to solve these problems.  The First Minister of Wales like Oliver Twist, holding out the bowl begging for more.

It is too comfortable for them not to have to make the economic and social decisions that other governments throughout the world make daily. Decisions on taxes, investment, borrowing and growing the economy etc. To always have someone else to blame.

it is also dishonest.  They know full well that with the present constitutional constraints and economic and legislative powers they cannot deliver meaningful change.
They also insult the Welsh people, by suggesting, by this approach, that with planning and leadership, they do not have the skills, resourcefulness and resolution, to stand on our own feet.

When will Welsh Labour learn that Wales is insignificant to Westminster and that there is a reckoning for this fence sitting.  Welsh Labour is increasingly losing public support. Not only is it being blamed for its own failings, but also for things outside its control. The Mr Micawber approach that something will turn up, will no longer do. the consequence is handing the initiative to the Tories whose only ambition is power.

The nearest that Welsh Labour has come to addressing Independence, is the pronouncement of the First Minister, Mark Drakeford, that "Wales support for the Union is not unconditional".
Perhaps he should enter the Independence debate by telling the Welsh public what those conditions are.

What to do about the North

What to do about the North

#North Wales is causing a problem.
Not only did they vote in a raft of Tory MPs but they even caused the Welsh Government to consider opening an office there.
They are becoming rebellious.

The Government seems to have the solution though.  It appears that the want to hive off North Wales to England.

How do I know this.

Wales very own  North/South HS rail link

I have recently been reading the Wales Government commissioned report for " The Case for investment in the Wales rail infrastructure ". The Barry Report.
They point out,  in the report,  the woeful lack of investment in the Wales rail infrastructure.  1% UK investment although Wales has 11% of the UK railway network. network.


They point to the massive £60 billion ( soon to be £100 billion ) investment in HS2, £20 billon Cross Rail, the proposed £30 billion Cross Rail 2 and  proposed £70 billion in the "Northern Powerhouse" rail infrastructure. All these in England.
The report also highlights that the effect of HS2 on Wales is an expected gain of £50 million to the North Wales economy and an expected loss of £200 million to South Wales per year.
it is also the case that rail travellers from South Wales to North Wales and vice versa have a tortuous 41/2 hour journey, during which they have to travel in and out of England.

The answer.

North Wales future is with England.  the Document argues that rail investment should be used to speed up rail links on the North Wales network to Liverpool and Manchester.
Despite stating that "the analysis is clear, investment in rail infrastructure is required to support a stronger, inclusive and more equitable economy,"  nowhere in the Report is there a plan for a North Wales to South Wales rail link. No plan for an integrated Wales. No mention of a "Wales Powerhouse."


So there you have it. There are plans for the Metro. That will take us north to Treherbert, Merthyr and Ebbw Vale,  so that must be the new border.
There is no plan to complete the network between Carmarthen and Aberystwrth, so maybe Aberystwrth will have to go.  I don't know what they will do about the National Library.
So there's the plan. No more worries about North South links.  No more worries about taking back Tory seats.  A smaller more compact Wales,  easier to finance and govern.

However perhaps they intend to ask Westminster for the money for Wales High Speed rail. Good luck with that.

Or perhaps like England, sorry UK, they could borrow the money. No, not allowed.

So it seems my original theory is right.

I will miss Rhyl though, I had good holidays there.