Not another Welsh poll!

#Not another Welsh poll!

Another Welsh poll,  another academic Mystic Meg.

Well actually the same academic,  the same pollsters  and the same client as two months ago.

I did indeed comment then, when I considered that academics were having an unhealthy influence on our democratic process.

But here we go again.  Cardiff University pollsters,  Cardiff University Professor analysing, ITV commissioning.

Now I know that there isn't much for them to do at the moment,  but really,  two months.

And what a change.  Almost unbelievable.

I am,  I admit,  sceptical of these polls.  Same people carrying them out, same person analysing,  1021 people polled,  the same as last time.

Now I don't know about you,  but I have never been approached by a pollster.  Nor do I know anyone who has.

I am not suggesting anything untoward,  but if all those people are from Cardiff University,  its hardly random polling.

Anyway back to the poll.

I did throw a little cold water on the results and analysis last time and there is nothing in this present poll to ease my scepticism.

I did suggest that the previous findings were premature,  however I was a little surprised how quickly realism would set in.

Tories down 11 points.  You have to have some sympathy.  Two  months  ago they were wetting their pants at the thought that maybe,  just maybe,  whatshisname,  their leader in Wales was on course for First Minister.  Who would have thought that Boris would have made such a b.....,s up.

Almost everyone except Cardiff University.

Elsewhere  there was nothing dramatic.  The professor divvying things up  pretty evenly.  There were gains for Labour and Plaid Cymru,  but not enough to get excited about. 

They can always be adjusted in two months time.

Independence on its way,  is the headline.  Well Adam Price thinks so.  There he is,  waving the flag with one hand,  while grabbing for a life raft with the other.

A life raft called Yes Cymru.

It is indeed the best showing in the polls for Independence.

At this rate we will start to get excited at about the same time that the Sennedd is celebrating its Diamond anniversary.

The concern for Plaid Cymru from this poll, is that a quarter of their voters don't support Independence.  If they are not convincing their own,  what chance with the sceptical others.

A positive from this poll,  although is was presented as a glass half empty,  was that less than a quarter seek abolition of the Sennedd.  That ,  down from almost fifty percent at the time of devolution.

Well  professor,  you were pretty far out from your projections last time.  I noticed that you reminded of your warning on volatility,  Yeah right.

I did say  the last time,  that I was prepared to put a friendly fiver on a  Labour dominated administration with Plaid.  I still think my money's safe.  If that is the case then its odds on that Kirsty Williams and Sir Dafydd will be back to the cheap seats. 

So professor,  don't think I take pleasure in pointing out these shortcomings. and in the spirit of cooperation,  I have a crystal ball that used to belong to Tommy Cooper that you can borrow anytime.