Where next for Welsh Labour

The Welsh Labour Government's popularity has risen, so the pollsters tell us, from 36% favourable to 65% favourable, since March.

Given that this period has been dominated by the covid pandemic, it can be assumed that the rise in popularity is due to their handling of the crisis.

So what next.  When covid doesn't dominate, when the economy needs to be rebuilt, when the health service and education become priorities again.

It has to be said, the record over the last 20 years of devolution hasn't been great and things are set to be a lot worse.

How the Welsh government goes forward will define their future and that of Wales.

The handling of the pandemic has suited their style of government, slow, methodical and not requiring much imagination.

Going forward that won't do. They should be looking, not at the 65% favourable now, but at the 36% favourable polling before the pandemic. That was the true picture and they have to ask themselves why they are regarded so unfavorably in their handling of the economy, health, education and so on, for that is their future problems.

They have had problems in connecting with the UK government throughout the covid crisis. Worryingly the First Minister made light of the fact.  He has done Wales no favours in that attitude. The lack of cooperation, shares of resources and money to reflect Wales unique problems, has cost Wales even to the extent of suffering more deaths.

The relationship with the UK government, and its clear English bias , is the norm and is set to continue.

It would be foolish to think that Wales will magically become a priority or even less of an afterthought, even with a change of party in Westminster.

The future is going to be difficult and will require a different leadership with the imagination to make different innovative and perhaps confrontational decisions than in the past. A dynamic Government prepared to stand up for Wales.

Wales hasn't had full support from Westminster, nor has it had the chance to reach its potential as a Nation. The money directed to Wales during thee pandemic is only it's share of a policy primely to support England. So no more nonsense about how Westminster is supporting the Welsh economy. 

Wales needs, deserves, a leadership that will stand up for Wales and, yes, to stand up to Westminster.

The time for wringing of hands and complaining is over.

The First Minister, Mark Drakeford, has repeated throughout the present crisis, that all his decisions have been directed first and foremost by the needs of Wales.

The people of Wales trust that this continues to be the priority going forward. 

If not then reaching that 36%  favourable standing will be an ambition that Welsh Labour will only dream of.

 

Not another Welsh poll!

#Not another Welsh poll!

Another Welsh poll,  another academic Mystic Meg.

Well actually the same academic,  the same pollsters  and the same client as two months ago.

I did indeed comment then, when I considered that academics were having an unhealthy influence on our democratic process.

But here we go again.  Cardiff University pollsters,  Cardiff University Professor analysing, ITV commissioning.

Now I know that there isn't much for them to do at the moment,  but really,  two months.

And what a change.  Almost unbelievable.

I am,  I admit,  sceptical of these polls.  Same people carrying them out, same person analysing,  1021 people polled,  the same as last time.

Now I don't know about you,  but I have never been approached by a pollster.  Nor do I know anyone who has.

I am not suggesting anything untoward,  but if all those people are from Cardiff University,  its hardly random polling.

Anyway back to the poll.

I did throw a little cold water on the results and analysis last time and there is nothing in this present poll to ease my scepticism.

I did suggest that the previous findings were premature,  however I was a little surprised how quickly realism would set in.

Tories down 11 points.  You have to have some sympathy.  Two  months  ago they were wetting their pants at the thought that maybe,  just maybe,  whatshisname,  their leader in Wales was on course for First Minister.  Who would have thought that Boris would have made such a b.....,s up.

Almost everyone except Cardiff University.

Elsewhere  there was nothing dramatic.  The professor divvying things up  pretty evenly.  There were gains for Labour and Plaid Cymru,  but not enough to get excited about. 

They can always be adjusted in two months time.

Independence on its way,  is the headline.  Well Adam Price thinks so.  There he is,  waving the flag with one hand,  while grabbing for a life raft with the other.

A life raft called Yes Cymru.

It is indeed the best showing in the polls for Independence.

At this rate we will start to get excited at about the same time that the Sennedd is celebrating its Diamond anniversary.

The concern for Plaid Cymru from this poll, is that a quarter of their voters don't support Independence.  If they are not convincing their own,  what chance with the sceptical others.

A positive from this poll,  although is was presented as a glass half empty,  was that less than a quarter seek abolition of the Sennedd.  That ,  down from almost fifty percent at the time of devolution.

Well  professor,  you were pretty far out from your projections last time.  I noticed that you reminded of your warning on volatility,  Yeah right.

I did say  the last time,  that I was prepared to put a friendly fiver on a  Labour dominated administration with Plaid.  I still think my money's safe.  If that is the case then its odds on that Kirsty Williams and Sir Dafydd will be back to the cheap seats. 

So professor,  don't think I take pleasure in pointing out these shortcomings. and in the spirit of cooperation,  I have a crystal ball that used to belong to Tommy Cooper that you can borrow anytime.

#Plaid Cymru. What are they all about?

The Party of Wales. Bit of a cheek. With more watching Newport County home games, than Plaid has members.

The membership is largely confined to the northwest of Wales. The valleys a barren land for Plaid.  Rhondda a bit of an exception,  but that's more of a personality thing.

Plaid Cymru. Party of Wales.  Rhan o Cymru.  Part of Wales is more appropriate.

And they are not moving forward.  Not gaining votes or seats.  Yes,  they will point to this poll and that.  Ahead of Labour.  Clutching at straws.  The fact is, they are the third party in the Senneddd  and the most optimistic polls point to them remaining that way.

Future projections,  if they are to be believed,  point to the challenge to Labour coming, not from Plaid Cymru, but from the Tories.

Leanne Wood was dumped,  not moving forward fast enough , so it was said, ( I think its because she's a socialist ).

There doesn't seem to be much forward momentum since though.

Plaid Cymru's Independence rally

Stagnating.  That's the best you can say.

So why?  What does Plaid stand for?

Therein lies the problem. The public doesn't really know.

They are perceived as a Welsh speaking ,  middle class,  elitist Party and it doesn't help that the leadership reinforce that perception.

The Chair. A member of the broadcasting fraternity, who writes Welsh language comedy programmes.  

Perhaps necessary qualifications for the role.

The Chief Executive.  Moved over from Friends of the Earth.  Maybe to help with the green credentials..

There is little sign of heavyweight impact in policy in that appointment.

The Leader.  Its no good playing the working class background card, if academia is the image showing through.  If you are out of touch with the voters.  You have to look people in the eye,  not talk over their heads.  

This call for reparation.  Headline grabbing to no purpose.

So what do they stand for.

A green economy,  fair and equal society. Jobs for all.  So whats new.

The system doesn't really work on a buggins turn basis, where its your turn to govern.

What does Plaid Cymru offer that's different.

It could be Independence.  A better Wales through an Independent Wales.  Well Plaid isn't convincing the Welsh public of that.

Despite Wales having a good share of voters disaffected with the present system, they are not flocking to them.

Plaid Cymru lacks conviction. As an established political party it has a platform,  an advantage.  However in the Independence movement it has ceded leadership to others.  Yes Cymru and others are leading the push,  not Plaid Cymru.

Plaid Cymru has announced the setting up of a Commission  on Independence.  A Commission.  The refuge of the clueless.

Twenty years after Devolution and with Independence supposedly at its core,  it still has to be told whether Independence works.

It is this lack of confidence and conviction that is a problem.

In the early days of devolution,  Independence was a word to be whispered,  in case it frightened the voters.

Then the Welsh Labour  government  lost it majority.  it was desperate for Plaid to prop it up.  There was the opportunity to insist that Independence to be put on the agenda.  Chance not taken.

The 2011 Plaid Cymru Sennedd election manifesto contained very little on Independence.  A  paragraph in fact.

The 2016 manifesto  concentrated on a Federal UK.  What is that all about?  We have what is supposedly a Federal UK.  Its not working. 

That was always going to be a non runner,  What Wales needs.  Full legislative  powers and economic autonomy.  are the very powers Westminster want to hang on to.

So what is it Plaid. ? You really don't believe in Independence, or are you afraid of it.?

The thing is, the persistent whining about the Welsh Labour government.  It's  becoming a mantra.

Further it is denigrating  not Welsh Labour , but the Government of Wales.  Giving ammunition to those who are not friends of Wales.  Those in Westminster and the English controlled media.

Yes you must hold the Welsh government to account, but if the motive is to embarrass the government you often embarrass the Nation.

The Welsh public know when things are wrong. What they want to know  how Plaid is going to to put it right.

Vague promises don't cut it,  as you are finding out.

The public is still waiting for Plaid to explain how Independence is going to work. Paying for Welsh water is hardly an economic plan. 

No Plaid I am afraid that the public realise , that neither you,  or any other party,  is going to make a significant difference under the present system.

It seems therefore you are stuffed. Destined to whither and die.

You have to do something different.  What about changing the system. What about self government.  A better Wales through an Independent Wales.

You don't seem keen on that though.

If you change your mind and you really want a go at government here's a clue.

Go for change. Down the self government route. ( sounds less radical than Independence ).

Address the main issues that concern people on Independence.

How are you going to do it.?  How are we going to afford it ?  How is it going to improve our lives.

Hammer it home at every opportunity. Remember Let's get Brexit done. That worked.

It should be front and centre with Plaid. Clear, precise, persuasive.  And for goodness sake sound as if you mean it.

So there you have it.  Independence must be Plaid Cymru's priority.

Unless of course you are happy with the sideline.  Or at best a junior partner in a future coalition.