The Pros Cons and Cons of Wales and the Union.

Wales couldn't have managed the costs of covid without Westminster.

£5.9 billions given to Wales. The vaccines Westminster has supplied. All the military to help.

To this the Wales First Minister applauds and the leader of Plaid does his goldfish act.

And it's a con. It's misleading the Welsh public.

The £5.9 billion is a very small share of the very large amount that the UK Chancellor borrowed to deal with Covid. Wales wouldn't have received any help, only that England/UK needed it.

A self governing Wales could have borrowed in the same way.

Next con. The UK Chancellor has, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, borrowed almost £400 billion to deal with covid.

This being so, Wales' population share should be £19 billion. 

So if Wales has received £5.9 billion. Where is the other £13 billion gone? Someone's had it and it's not Wales.

Think what help could be given to Welsh businesses, tourism, hospitality

health,social care and individuals with an extra £13 billion.

After all Wales pays a population share of servicing the debt.

As for vaccines. Yes the purchasing power of the UK secured a cheaper deal and Wales as a small country would have paid a higher price.

It would however have secured vaccines in the same way as other small countries. 

Had it been able to act individually in the beginning of the pandemic, it would not have  to rely on others for supplies.

It could have acted sooner, vaccinated quicker.

As for cost. Israel, for example, had to pay top price for it's vaccine supply, but as its government said, in total, the equivalent to two days of lockdown costs.

So Better Together. But better for who?

The beneficiary of retaining the Union is England.

If the Union were to split, England, which is in essence the UK and vice versa, would lose considerable status in the eyes of the world. Indeed would stand to lose its special position at the UN Security Council. 

England/UK would be diminished.

England is a net consumer of resources.

It presently benefits from supplies of resources, electricity and water from Wales and Scotland.

If the Union should split England would no longer have control of those supplies.

It is argued that England/UK provides the finance for Wales to pay its way, 

England/UK has no money. They have a £2 trillion debt. They borrow money to pay their way and on the expensive projects they undertake.

They then give Wales a very small portion of that money through an outdated and unfair formula.

The money allocated does not relate to any specific spending requirement, nor whether it is sufficient, nor under any timescale decided by the Welsh government. It is entirely dependent on England's requirements.

England/UK treasury receives Wales population share contribution to servicing the debt. it's not Wales debt, they are not allowed to have debt. Wales does not get it's population share of money raised from the " National " debt.

Prior to covid. In the years 2015 to 2020, the UK debt increased by £500 billions. Money borrowed for expensive projects ( all in England ) and to fund overspend.

Wales population share should have been approximately £25 billion.

The 2015 devolution settlement allocated less than £1 billion capital spending to Wales spread over five years. 

England has the advantage of that.

Wales revenues are collected on a UK wide basis. They are disaggregated between the UK nations, as HMRC states, using estimates, assumptions and adjustments, therefore revenues allocated to Wales and Wales' so called financial deficit must be treated with caution.

HMRC conceded that corporate revenues from businesses operating in Wales are often allocated to company headquarters located in England.

Wales public services don't benefit from these revenues. That revenue goes to England.

Wales, together with Scotland and N Ireland, contribute to HS2 railway link.

Although no part of it is in Wales, it is regarded as an England and Wales project and therefore Wales gets no Barnett tradeoff, although Scotland and N Ireland will receive hundreds of millions of pounds through Barnett.

It has been estimated that Wales will be robbed of approximately £500 millions. 

It has also been estimated that rather than benefiting Wales, HS2 will be detrimental to the Welsh economy to £150 millions per year.

So what does Wales get out of the Union.

It gets a budget deficit. Wales deficit is a consequence of being part of the UK. The deficit wouldn't exist as an Independent country.

Wales budget spending, contains items not spent in Wales. They are amounts that the Westminster governments say Wales must pay to UK spending.

This arrangement leads Wales to have the largest military expenditure, per capita, of any nation in Europe.

The total Wales spending outside Wales is £7.2 billions pa. Amounts totally unrealistic for a country the size of Wales.

This money does not benefit the Welsh economy, nor does Wales get revenues associated with it.

Wales pays the state pension in Wales from its government expenditure.

State pensions throughout the UK is legally the responsibility of the UK government.

This costs Wales £5.9 billions pa.

Wales loses £1.6 billions through the UK's " revenue gap ".  That is Wales' population share of the money HMRC loses through tax evasion, tax avoidance, inefficiencies etc.

Wales has no control over that,

Wales can't borrow as other nations do. To invest in the economy or infrastructure.

Wales can't set up its own tax and benefit system. One that's more efficient, equitable and better suited to Wales economy, taking the best practices of other countries.

Wales can't grow its economy. The Silk Commission on Devolution states this specifically " Under the present constitutional arrangements, the Wales government cannot grow the Welsh economy. They can only manage a given allocation ".

Wales can't make trade deals with other countries, independently of the UK. Only the UK government can make such deals on behalf of Wales.

Wales can't authorise or invest in large infrastructure projects. Wales must gain the consent of the Westminster government.

Wales can't authorise or invest in large energy projects. Wales must gain the consent of the Westminster government.

Wales does not have income over that felt necessary to run it's public services and maintain its infrastructure.

Wales doesn't have the money to deal with emergencies such as covid, flooding and the removal of dangerous coal waste tips. 

Wales has to ask for such finance from Westminster and it is entirely at the discretion of the Westminster government.

So what are the pros.

Still looking.