The two faces of Mark Drakeford.

First, an apology. This next piece was meant to be on the economy of an Independent Wales. That will come.

However, Independence will not happen until there is a pro Independence Senedd.

Welsh Labour, at present Unionist, at least among its leadership, has promised a Constitutional Commission to chart Wales' future.

Presumably, if they are serious, the findings of the Commission will also influence Wales Labour's position.

But are they serious?. Which face of Mark Drakeford will we see?

Is it the Mark Drakeford who argues his priority is the Welsh people. Seen to be leading Wales carefully and steadily through the pandemic. Widely applauded and favourably compared with those over the bridge. Although it has to be said that the latter is no particular achievement.

Or is it the Mark Drakeford presiding over a stagnant economy. A struggling health and care service. A substandard education system. Lower than average wages. Twenty two years of inequality. Significant poverty. All under a Welsh Labour government and Devolution.  A devolution settlement, supported by and described by this government as " a good and long lasting settlement ", only four years ago, when they agreed it ( 2017 Wales Act ).

All this because of being tied to this Union.

Now it seems it is described by Wales Government ministers as " not fit for purpose ".

So what is Mr Drakeford's justification for his ' better together argument '?

His publicly stated anti Independence position is that under Independence, Welsh people would find it difficult to shop in Chester.

This facetious argument, that can only refer to currency or border issues, is clearly an extension of the fear factor approach. Because Mr Drakeford knows there is no foundation in it.

Unless Independence causes a border in line with the Soviet cold war and its Checkpoint Charlie's, the ordinary citizens will see little difference.

Crossing from the USA to Canada and vice versa, requires no more than showing a driving license or alternative and there is no reason why Wales to England and vice versa should be any more onerous.

The currency is another dishonest red herring.

Shopping in Chester would be, post Independence, no more difficult than Cardiff.

You put your Visa, Mastercard etc in the hole in the wall and the local currency appears. Or tap it while buying and the banking system does the rest.

Where's the difficulty?

There is an exchange rate calculation, but this has never been a significant problem, from decimalisation to holidaying in Europe.

An extension of Mr Drakeford's better to do nothing argument, is the ' better together '. Stay with the Union.

Now this is a difficult one to defend.

Hardly a day goes by when a Welsh department minister is banging on about lack of resources.

That the money coming from Westminster is not sufficient.

That UK Ministers are not sympathetic to Wales' needs.

The First Minister reçently admitted that the Welsh government would be unable to move to a covid lockdown, even if it was the preferred course, as they couldn't finance it and Westminster would not assist unless it was also their intended action.

But that's Devolution,.it has always been this way.

Mr Drakeford however argues that the UK is there in time of need, as insurance.

His constant and main arguments are that Wales could not have managed the pandemic financially, without the UK government.

That however, is only the case because Wales is constrained by the present constitutional arrangements.

He must know that the financial help is borrowed money.

Borrowed on Wales behalf because Wales is not allowed to borrow.

It is distributed, not according to need, but by decisions made by Westminster.

Wales pays it's population share towards the borrowing. £2.2 billions a year.

But does it get its share of that borrowing?

The Unionists make great noise about the money Wales has been ' given ' to pay for the costs of covid. The Office of Budget Responsibility gave the figure of £8 billions.

However, the same body has estimated that the UK government has borrowed in excess of £350 billions for covid alone thus far.

Wales' population share should therefore have been £17 billions, meaning Wales has been shortchanged to the tune of £9 billions.

Imagine the difference that would have made.

Where was the Welsh government when the light-fingered UK Treasury was selling Wales short.

The Welsh Labour government is aware that the present system is unsustainable. There must be change.

Welsh Labour's direction of travel for this change is their, Reforming our Union.

This seeks a future where Wales remains part of the Union, only a Union that's a reformed body and Mr Drakeford is the person that is going to change it..

A 20 point plan for reform.

Mr Drakeford professes to act in the best interests of the Welsh people. So why this fixation on the Union by Welsh Labour.

Why do they continue to stick with policies that cause the Welsh people to suffer?

What are their arguments for this course?

Is their pursuit of this, at best, very long term ambition, condemning the Welsh people to further unnecessary suffering, further austerity and inequality.

Are they doing so for political dogma?

So to look at this Better Together argument.

Reforming our Union. A 20 point plan.

It does indeed contain a 20 points. An extensive wish list. But hardly a plan.

This document tells us what the Welsh Labour government would like, but is short on detail on how it's to be achieved.

The ' plan' also depends on all others buying into it in its entirety, for part agreement invalidates it.

Mr Drakeford is going to change the system so that Wales gets more money.

Given that the present UK economy is in deficit and likely to stay so, it means someone else having less. That will go down well.

The new Union will also mean that England will be unable to spend if it impacts unfavorably on Wales. As almost everything that England spends, impacts unfavorably on Wales, that is unlikely to have an enthusiastic reception.

With regard to legislation. The UK government resists legislation already agreed as devolved. It has been clear it will not agree to further devolved legislation.

Westminster disagrees with Wales on so many issues, responsibility for coal waste removal, flooding assistance, financial support for key areas of covid, investment in energy projects ( Swansea Bay ) for example, it is difficult to see major financial and constitutional changes being agreed by a UK/English Tory led administration.

Looking toward UK Labour isn't helpful. Starmer's stated priorities on reform is concentrated on an enhanced role for English regions in his 'Federal UK '. Scotland ( Wales wasn't mentioned ), was not to have further powers, but to use its present powers more effectively.

Don't think there will be a lot of support for Wales reforming plans there.

As for the other nations.

It is fanciful to think that Scotland will be satisfied with less than Independence.

In N. Ireland, the decline of the Unionist parties coupled with a resurgence of Sein Fien on both sides of the border, is pointing to a United Ireland.

Even an optimistic assessment would point to a lengthy, tortuous process with little guarantee of success.

In the meantime the Welsh people continue to suffer problems brought about by this political fixation.

Even a successful process would see Wales fail to reach its potential.

The finances, even with the so-called independent bodies advocated, will still see financial control remain in Westminster. Nor will Westminster concede legislative control.

Enhanced capital borrowing powers will still need to be underwritten by the UK government and it therefore must be they who decide the priority, not the Welsh government.

Staying with the Union arrangement, Wales will continue to be 5% of the UK economy and decision making.

England will continue to be 86% and Wales dependent on England's success or failure.

It is difficult to see a satisfactory arrangement with such disparity.

There is an alternative.

Wales' future could rest on developing an economy that is controlled 100% by Wales. Where the revenues and wealth created in Wales remains in Wales. That's Independence

Or. It can remain as 5% of a failed UK. An economy based on borrowing.

Whatever Mr Drakeford wants, that is the reality of the future in the Union.

If Mr Drakeford does not believe that Wales can't stand on it's own, he should say so and let the real debate take place.