Wales Independence. What about the border?

Will there be a hard border? How will I get to work in England? Will I be able to shop in England? How am I going to move my goods?

All voiced as concerns that life would be more difficult after Independence. And all stated as if Wales was the only country to ever face these issues

The border is defined as hard or soft, not because of walls or fences, but as to the degree of restriction to trade and freedom of movement..

However it is futile to pretend that nothing will change.

The question is. How much of a change and will the benefits outweigh these changes.

First some context.

People crossing the border for work, business and pleasure.

Approximately 90000 people cross the border from Wales to work in UKr. predominantly England.

This equates to 6% of the Wales workers.

You would expect this figure to reduce significantly as an Independent Wales economy grows

Approximately 48000.people cross into Wales to work.

There is also a free flow of people crossing for business and pleasure.

So how would this change, post Independence.

Logically and reasonably there would be little change.

Citizens can cross the US/Canadian border for business or pleasure, by simply showing a driving licence or similar.

The people of Sweden and Norway, one a member of the EU the other not, have unrestricted movement since the two countries reached such an agreement in 1950.

Indeed much of the 1600 km border is unmanned. 

This ID free agreement extends to other Nordic countries. Denmark, Finland and Iceland.

The UK presently has its own free movement agreement. The Common Travel Area [ CTA ].

This allows freedom of movement between the nations of the UK, England, N Ireland, Scotland and Wales, as well as the Channel Islands and Isle of Man [ who are not governed by Westminster ] and the Republic of Ireland [ an Independent nation and member of the EU ]

There is no logical reason why the same freedoms should not extend to Wales on Independence.

There are many precedents to assure the Welsh public that a  border should be no significant impediment on Independence.

The border and trade post Independence.

Some perspective.

A little over 50% of Wales business output is sold internally, that is within Wales.

Therefore no tariffs or border checks.

A further 20% is exported, predominantly to the EU. These Wales exporters are already subject to the regulations of those countries.

Which leaves 30% of Wales trade going to the rest of the UK and it is this trade that could be affected by Independence.

But to what extent.

After Independence Wales trading relationships with the remaining UK will most assuredly change.

The recent history of Wales' industrial base has been heavily biassed on supplying parts for businesses in England.

There has been a woeful lack of investing in and attracting the industries of the future, space sciences, semiconductors, transport technology, etc and generally in innovation, research and development.

When this decline is reversed, Wales' industrial base will change, and will become more concentrated in the future, green technology industry and more international.

Wales will become less dependent on trade with the next door neighbour and the costs of international trade, will be compensated by the higher value nature of such trade,

With Independence Wales will take control of its resources, particularly renewable energy from offshore wind and tidal and marine energy,

In addition to providing a secure supply of relatively cheap energy to its people and businesses, Wales will become a major energy exporter.

This energy is not subject to tariffs and barriers as other commodities.

As well as Wales exports to the UKr, Wales also buys approximately the same value of imports from them. It is therefore in no one's interests to raise unnecessary barriers to this trade.

There will also be regulation in place to ensure this.

Wales, on Independence, will become a member of the World Trade Organisation [ WTO ].

The UK is already a member.

The purpose of that organisation is to promote the maximum freedom of trade.

It prevents its members imposing unnecessary, arbitrary and unfair charges, restrictions and tariffs on others.

This will apply to trade between an Independent Wales and UKr.

Whether an Independent Wales applies to rejoin the EU will be a decision for a Wales government, weighing up the costs and benefits and unlike now, Wales will be free to make agreements and associations, with whom it wishes, at mutual benefits.