Welsh public duped again

Are you fed up with being duped?  Do you lose sleep over it? No, well that's normal, for being duped is a way of life in Wales..

First of all by being told we are better off in the Union, despite the hardship, poverty, state of health, social services, education, in fact almost everything is a problem.

Then we are told that Wales cant afford to be Independent, when all the evidence is that Wales can't afford not to be,

It's not only the Westminster government. The Welsh government for example says they no longer have the money to support the poorest children during the summer break.

Of course the financial arrangements with Westminster are detrimental to Wales, but under the present system it's about priorities and if looking after the poorest children is not a priority for a Labour, socialist government. Well.

Incidentally, they should hang their heads at supporting a constitutional arrangement, that leads to such poverty in Wales

And  the latest dupe shows why..

Saving the Union. The Gordon  and Mark show.

A new show was launched recently.

A new group took to the stage.

Not a boy band or a new leftover from Britain's Got Talent. These were old hands. 

They chose Edinburgh, appropriate as the home of the Fringe.

They haven't indicated whether there is to be a tour. Performing before audiences of tens of tens.

The group ‘ The Alliance for Radical Democracy' is headlined by the UK ex- Prime Minister Gordon Brown, assisted by the soon to be ex- First Minister of Wales, Mark Drakeford. Also in the group is the ex- Leader of the LIb Dems in Scotland, a couple of English mayors and a comedian [  tempting to say another comedian ].

Now that's a lineup to catch the attention.

What to do about England.

England is a problem.

England isn't pulling its weight in the UK ‘ Union ‘.

Despite Having millions of pounds worth of free water from Wales.

Wales supplying them with billion of pounds worth of electricity [ Wales getting no financial gain] 

Wales handing over all its income to the UK/English government.

Despite being able to print the money it needs, from its own bank. The Bank of England.

Despite having the pick of inward investment

Despite all that  ,the English economy is going down the drain and as it is 86% of the UK, the UK economy is following..

So wouldn't Wales be better keeping these resources for itself?

How to resolve the problem.

Historically, England is a bit touchy about such negative views. Usually citing Wales [ 4.8% of the UK economy ] or Scotland [ 7.4% ] for the ails of the UK..

So, what to do about England.

The runners and riders in the future of Wales.

So the interim report from the Commission on the Constitution in Wales has been released and surprise surprise the Commission finds that the present system of government in Wales is not sustainable.

Neither are the three alternatives a surprise.

A reformed devolution, the preference of the First Minister.

The  not quite halfway house of Federalism.

Independence.

The Commission has identified these as the three viable options. 

Not unexpected, but interesting that Independence has at last been conceded as an option by an official report.

The constraints on the Commission means that it gives no more weight to one option over the others, nor does it appear it will recommend one option over the others at the completion of its work.

This piece has no such constraints.

The two faces of Mark Drakeford.

First, an apology. This next piece was meant to be on the economy of an Independent Wales. That will come.

However, Independence will not happen until there is a pro Independence Senedd.

Welsh Labour, at present Unionist, at least among its leadership, has promised a Constitutional Commission to chart Wales' future.

Presumably, if they are serious, the findings of the Commission will also influence Wales Labour's position.

But are they serious?. Which face of Mark Drakeford will we see?

Do not ask, can Wales afford Independence?

Ask instead, can Wales afford the Union?

The perennial question asked, is whether Wales can afford to be Independent.

Less often is the question asked, can Wales afford the Union.

The Unionists in Wales, Welsh Labour and Tories extol the virtues of this relationship, but except for " better together " and " Wales can't manage without Westminster ", very little detail is offered in support.

The coming elections for the Senedd however, somewhat gives the game away.

Both these parties promise great changes.

Thousands of new nurses, doctors, teachers More affordable houses, roads and to increase the wages of low paid workers.

All this however,merely illustrates that they accept that Wales is suffering significant shortages.

Add to this the 10% lower than average earnings of Welsh workers. The 11% lower productivity of Wesh industry, through lower than UK average levels of investment. Twenty five percent lower in transport and infrastructure and research and development.

And then there's the lower than average levels of education standards of Welsh children against UK and international standards.

And let's not forget the 200000 Welsh children in poverty.

I nearly left out the stagnating Welsh economy.

Oh yes and the food banks.

This, as part of the sixth wealthiest economy in the world.

The opposition will lay charges of incompetent government against the Wales government, but that cannot explain such widespread impoverishment. 

The Tories in Wales also call for increases across the board and it will take miraculous redistribution to fulfil their aims from the present budget.

The Welsh Labour government has given a further clue as to the problems. They have taken up with the dreaded Public Private Finance 

Initiative.

The very system that they have derided the UK government over and 

boasted that it wasn't for Wales.

Well it is now.

They have tied a bow around it and given it a different name, but it's the same system where the private part gets rich and the public part carries the cost for years to come.

So why have they done this? Out of the mouths of babes. The First Minister admits that without this arrangement, Wales would not be able to invest in infrastructure projects. 

So, to get to the point.

Independence has played no part in this dire situation. It is a consequence of  the history of Wales only ever belonging to the Union.

How do the Unionist parties intend to resolve Wales' problems?

More of the same it would seem.

The Tories in Wales would continue to rely on friends in high places. Other than, they would work with the UK government, no other clue as to how they would achieve their huge transformation promises.

Welsh Labour aren't quite sure. Some are talking up an as yet, undefined federal system. Others an improved devolution.

Both lead back to the same problem, that control of the essential levers of government, economic and legislative, will lie outside their control.

Both the Tory and Labour solutions have the same problem. These solutions are beyond their influence. Both these approaches are in the gift of the Westminster government.

A Westminster government, not recognized for its generosity to Wales.

It's not as if Wales has not made its contribution to this Union.

It presently sends water and electricity, free of charge, to keep England going.

Revenues from the profits of businesses in Wales are paid to the UK exchequer.

In recent history Wales was an industrial powerhouse. Huge profits were made from mining, slate and iron and steel from Wales.

Where are the great seats of learning, the hospitals and care homes paid for from these profits.

The universities of Wales were as a result of the contributions of the workers, the public.

The hospitals and medical care are the result of the NHS, the contributions of the people and before that by religious and charitable organizations.

The care homes are run by private enterprises.

The benefits from these vast  profits don't seem to have found their way to the Welsh part of the Union. 

Although Wales is suffering the consequence, in long term health problems and a polluted environment.

This is not the result of Independence, but of being in the Union.

So. Those that enthusiastically bang the Unionist drum, would do well to remember that wrapping Wales in the Union Flag, only leads to getting smothered.

 

The Pros Cons and Cons of Wales and the Union.

Wales couldn't have managed the costs of covid without Westminster.

£5.9 billions given to Wales. The vaccines Westminster has supplied. All the military to help.

To this the Wales First Minister applauds and the leader of Plaid does his goldfish act.

And it's a con. It's misleading the Welsh public.

The £5.9 billion is a very small share of the very large amount that the UK Chancellor borrowed to deal with Covid. Wales wouldn't have received any help, only that England/UK needed it.

A self governing Wales could have borrowed in the same way.

Next con. The UK Chancellor has, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, borrowed almost £400 billion to deal with covid.

This being so, Wales' population share should be £19 billion. 

So if Wales has received £5.9 billion. Where is the other £13 billion gone? Someone's had it and it's not Wales.

Think what help could be given to Welsh businesses, tourism, hospitality

health,social care and individuals with an extra £13 billion.

After all Wales pays a population share of servicing the debt.

As for vaccines. Yes the purchasing power of the UK secured a cheaper deal and Wales as a small country would have paid a higher price.

It would however have secured vaccines in the same way as other small countries. 

Had it been able to act individually in the beginning of the pandemic, it would not have  to rely on others for supplies.

It could have acted sooner, vaccinated quicker.

As for cost. Israel, for example, had to pay top price for it's vaccine supply, but as its government said, in total, the equivalent to two days of lockdown costs.

So Better Together. But better for who?

The beneficiary of retaining the Union is England.

If the Union were to split, England, which is in essence the UK and vice versa, would lose considerable status in the eyes of the world. Indeed would stand to lose its special position at the UN Security Council. 

England/UK would be diminished.

England is a net consumer of resources.

It presently benefits from supplies of resources, electricity and water from Wales and Scotland.

If the Union should split England would no longer have control of those supplies.

It is argued that England/UK provides the finance for Wales to pay its way, 

England/UK has no money. They have a £2 trillion debt. They borrow money to pay their way and on the expensive projects they undertake.

They then give Wales a very small portion of that money through an outdated and unfair formula.

The money allocated does not relate to any specific spending requirement, nor whether it is sufficient, nor under any timescale decided by the Welsh government. It is entirely dependent on England's requirements.

England/UK treasury receives Wales population share contribution to servicing the debt. it's not Wales debt, they are not allowed to have debt. Wales does not get it's population share of money raised from the " National " debt.

Prior to covid. In the years 2015 to 2020, the UK debt increased by £500 billions. Money borrowed for expensive projects ( all in England ) and to fund overspend.

Wales population share should have been approximately £25 billion.

The 2015 devolution settlement allocated less than £1 billion capital spending to Wales spread over five years. 

England has the advantage of that.

Wales revenues are collected on a UK wide basis. They are disaggregated between the UK nations, as HMRC states, using estimates, assumptions and adjustments, therefore revenues allocated to Wales and Wales' so called financial deficit must be treated with caution.

HMRC conceded that corporate revenues from businesses operating in Wales are often allocated to company headquarters located in England.

Wales public services don't benefit from these revenues. That revenue goes to England.

Wales, together with Scotland and N Ireland, contribute to HS2 railway link.

Although no part of it is in Wales, it is regarded as an England and Wales project and therefore Wales gets no Barnett tradeoff, although Scotland and N Ireland will receive hundreds of millions of pounds through Barnett.

It has been estimated that Wales will be robbed of approximately £500 millions. 

It has also been estimated that rather than benefiting Wales, HS2 will be detrimental to the Welsh economy to £150 millions per year.

So what does Wales get out of the Union.

It gets a budget deficit. Wales deficit is a consequence of being part of the UK. The deficit wouldn't exist as an Independent country.

Wales budget spending, contains items not spent in Wales. They are amounts that the Westminster governments say Wales must pay to UK spending.

This arrangement leads Wales to have the largest military expenditure, per capita, of any nation in Europe.

The total Wales spending outside Wales is £7.2 billions pa. Amounts totally unrealistic for a country the size of Wales.

This money does not benefit the Welsh economy, nor does Wales get revenues associated with it.

Wales pays the state pension in Wales from its government expenditure.

State pensions throughout the UK is legally the responsibility of the UK government.

This costs Wales £5.9 billions pa.

Wales loses £1.6 billions through the UK's " revenue gap ".  That is Wales' population share of the money HMRC loses through tax evasion, tax avoidance, inefficiencies etc.

Wales has no control over that,

Wales can't borrow as other nations do. To invest in the economy or infrastructure.

Wales can't set up its own tax and benefit system. One that's more efficient, equitable and better suited to Wales economy, taking the best practices of other countries.

Wales can't grow its economy. The Silk Commission on Devolution states this specifically " Under the present constitutional arrangements, the Wales government cannot grow the Welsh economy. They can only manage a given allocation ".

Wales can't make trade deals with other countries, independently of the UK. Only the UK government can make such deals on behalf of Wales.

Wales can't authorise or invest in large infrastructure projects. Wales must gain the consent of the Westminster government.

Wales can't authorise or invest in large energy projects. Wales must gain the consent of the Westminster government.

Wales does not have income over that felt necessary to run it's public services and maintain its infrastructure.

Wales doesn't have the money to deal with emergencies such as covid, flooding and the removal of dangerous coal waste tips. 

Wales has to ask for such finance from Westminster and it is entirely at the discretion of the Westminster government.

So what are the pros.

Still looking.