Where next for Welsh Labour

The Welsh Labour Government's popularity has risen, so the pollsters tell us, from 36% favourable to 65% favourable, since March.

Given that this period has been dominated by the covid pandemic, it can be assumed that the rise in popularity is due to their handling of the crisis.

So what next.  When covid doesn't dominate, when the economy needs to be rebuilt, when the health service and education become priorities again.

It has to be said, the record over the last 20 years of devolution hasn't been great and things are set to be a lot worse.

How the Welsh government goes forward will define their future and that of Wales.

The handling of the pandemic has suited their style of government, slow, methodical and not requiring much imagination.

Going forward that won't do. They should be looking, not at the 65% favourable now, but at the 36% favourable polling before the pandemic. That was the true picture and they have to ask themselves why they are regarded so unfavorably in their handling of the economy, health, education and so on, for that is their future problems.

They have had problems in connecting with the UK government throughout the covid crisis. Worryingly the First Minister made light of the fact.  He has done Wales no favours in that attitude. The lack of cooperation, shares of resources and money to reflect Wales unique problems, has cost Wales even to the extent of suffering more deaths.

The relationship with the UK government, and its clear English bias , is the norm and is set to continue.

It would be foolish to think that Wales will magically become a priority or even less of an afterthought, even with a change of party in Westminster.

The future is going to be difficult and will require a different leadership with the imagination to make different innovative and perhaps confrontational decisions than in the past. A dynamic Government prepared to stand up for Wales.

Wales hasn't had full support from Westminster, nor has it had the chance to reach its potential as a Nation. The money directed to Wales during thee pandemic is only it's share of a policy primely to support England. So no more nonsense about how Westminster is supporting the Welsh economy. 

Wales needs, deserves, a leadership that will stand up for Wales and, yes, to stand up to Westminster.

The time for wringing of hands and complaining is over.

The First Minister, Mark Drakeford, has repeated throughout the present crisis, that all his decisions have been directed first and foremost by the needs of Wales.

The people of Wales trust that this continues to be the priority going forward. 

If not then reaching that 36%  favourable standing will be an ambition that Welsh Labour will only dream of.

 

Not another Welsh poll!

#Not another Welsh poll!

Another Welsh poll,  another academic Mystic Meg.

Well actually the same academic,  the same pollsters  and the same client as two months ago.

I did indeed comment then, when I considered that academics were having an unhealthy influence on our democratic process.

But here we go again.  Cardiff University pollsters,  Cardiff University Professor analysing, ITV commissioning.

Now I know that there isn't much for them to do at the moment,  but really,  two months.

And what a change.  Almost unbelievable.

I am,  I admit,  sceptical of these polls.  Same people carrying them out, same person analysing,  1021 people polled,  the same as last time.

Now I don't know about you,  but I have never been approached by a pollster.  Nor do I know anyone who has.

I am not suggesting anything untoward,  but if all those people are from Cardiff University,  its hardly random polling.

Anyway back to the poll.

I did throw a little cold water on the results and analysis last time and there is nothing in this present poll to ease my scepticism.

I did suggest that the previous findings were premature,  however I was a little surprised how quickly realism would set in.

Tories down 11 points.  You have to have some sympathy.  Two  months  ago they were wetting their pants at the thought that maybe,  just maybe,  whatshisname,  their leader in Wales was on course for First Minister.  Who would have thought that Boris would have made such a b.....,s up.

Almost everyone except Cardiff University.

Elsewhere  there was nothing dramatic.  The professor divvying things up  pretty evenly.  There were gains for Labour and Plaid Cymru,  but not enough to get excited about. 

They can always be adjusted in two months time.

Independence on its way,  is the headline.  Well Adam Price thinks so.  There he is,  waving the flag with one hand,  while grabbing for a life raft with the other.

A life raft called Yes Cymru.

It is indeed the best showing in the polls for Independence.

At this rate we will start to get excited at about the same time that the Sennedd is celebrating its Diamond anniversary.

The concern for Plaid Cymru from this poll, is that a quarter of their voters don't support Independence.  If they are not convincing their own,  what chance with the sceptical others.

A positive from this poll,  although is was presented as a glass half empty,  was that less than a quarter seek abolition of the Sennedd.  That ,  down from almost fifty percent at the time of devolution.

Well  professor,  you were pretty far out from your projections last time.  I noticed that you reminded of your warning on volatility,  Yeah right.

I did say  the last time,  that I was prepared to put a friendly fiver on a  Labour dominated administration with Plaid.  I still think my money's safe.  If that is the case then its odds on that Kirsty Williams and Sir Dafydd will be back to the cheap seats. 

So professor,  don't think I take pleasure in pointing out these shortcomings. and in the spirit of cooperation,  I have a crystal ball that used to belong to Tommy Cooper that you can borrow anytime.

#Plaid Cymru. What are they all about?

The Party of Wales. Bit of a cheek. With more watching Newport County home games, than Plaid has members.

The membership is largely confined to the northwest of Wales. The valleys a barren land for Plaid.  Rhondda a bit of an exception,  but that's more of a personality thing.

Plaid Cymru. Party of Wales.  Rhan o Cymru.  Part of Wales is more appropriate.

And they are not moving forward.  Not gaining votes or seats.  Yes,  they will point to this poll and that.  Ahead of Labour.  Clutching at straws.  The fact is, they are the third party in the Senneddd  and the most optimistic polls point to them remaining that way.

Future projections,  if they are to be believed,  point to the challenge to Labour coming, not from Plaid Cymru, but from the Tories.

Leanne Wood was dumped,  not moving forward fast enough , so it was said, ( I think its because she's a socialist ).

There doesn't seem to be much forward momentum since though.

Plaid Cymru's Independence rally

Stagnating.  That's the best you can say.

So why?  What does Plaid stand for?

Therein lies the problem. The public doesn't really know.

They are perceived as a Welsh speaking ,  middle class,  elitist Party and it doesn't help that the leadership reinforce that perception.

The Chair. A member of the broadcasting fraternity, who writes Welsh language comedy programmes.  

Perhaps necessary qualifications for the role.

The Chief Executive.  Moved over from Friends of the Earth.  Maybe to help with the green credentials..

There is little sign of heavyweight impact in policy in that appointment.

The Leader.  Its no good playing the working class background card, if academia is the image showing through.  If you are out of touch with the voters.  You have to look people in the eye,  not talk over their heads.  

This call for reparation.  Headline grabbing to no purpose.

So what do they stand for.

A green economy,  fair and equal society. Jobs for all.  So whats new.

The system doesn't really work on a buggins turn basis, where its your turn to govern.

What does Plaid Cymru offer that's different.

It could be Independence.  A better Wales through an Independent Wales.  Well Plaid isn't convincing the Welsh public of that.

Despite Wales having a good share of voters disaffected with the present system, they are not flocking to them.

Plaid Cymru lacks conviction. As an established political party it has a platform,  an advantage.  However in the Independence movement it has ceded leadership to others.  Yes Cymru and others are leading the push,  not Plaid Cymru.

Plaid Cymru has announced the setting up of a Commission  on Independence.  A Commission.  The refuge of the clueless.

Twenty years after Devolution and with Independence supposedly at its core,  it still has to be told whether Independence works.

It is this lack of confidence and conviction that is a problem.

In the early days of devolution,  Independence was a word to be whispered,  in case it frightened the voters.

Then the Welsh Labour  government  lost it majority.  it was desperate for Plaid to prop it up.  There was the opportunity to insist that Independence to be put on the agenda.  Chance not taken.

The 2011 Plaid Cymru Sennedd election manifesto contained very little on Independence.  A  paragraph in fact.

The 2016 manifesto  concentrated on a Federal UK.  What is that all about?  We have what is supposedly a Federal UK.  Its not working. 

That was always going to be a non runner,  What Wales needs.  Full legislative  powers and economic autonomy.  are the very powers Westminster want to hang on to.

So what is it Plaid. ? You really don't believe in Independence, or are you afraid of it.?

The thing is, the persistent whining about the Welsh Labour government.  It's  becoming a mantra.

Further it is denigrating  not Welsh Labour , but the Government of Wales.  Giving ammunition to those who are not friends of Wales.  Those in Westminster and the English controlled media.

Yes you must hold the Welsh government to account, but if the motive is to embarrass the government you often embarrass the Nation.

The Welsh public know when things are wrong. What they want to know  how Plaid is going to to put it right.

Vague promises don't cut it,  as you are finding out.

The public is still waiting for Plaid to explain how Independence is going to work. Paying for Welsh water is hardly an economic plan. 

No Plaid I am afraid that the public realise , that neither you,  or any other party,  is going to make a significant difference under the present system.

It seems therefore you are stuffed. Destined to whither and die.

You have to do something different.  What about changing the system. What about self government.  A better Wales through an Independent Wales.

You don't seem keen on that though.

If you change your mind and you really want a go at government here's a clue.

Go for change. Down the self government route. ( sounds less radical than Independence ).

Address the main issues that concern people on Independence.

How are you going to do it.?  How are we going to afford it ?  How is it going to improve our lives.

Hammer it home at every opportunity. Remember Let's get Brexit done. That worked.

It should be front and centre with Plaid. Clear, precise, persuasive.  And for goodness sake sound as if you mean it.

So there you have it.  Independence must be Plaid Cymru's priority.

Unless of course you are happy with the sideline.  Or at best a junior partner in a future coalition.

The Labour Party leader's antisemitism dilemma.

Sir Kier Starmer leader of the Labour Party.  Pretty straightforward.  Until now.

Got rid of the Corbynites from the front bench. Few cheers there from the Parliamentary Labour Party ( right wing dominated helps ). Few cheers for his performance at PMQs.  In his element there.  Busy erasing Corbyn from the history of the Labour Party.  

And then came the first test of his leadership.  Oh dear.   Labour and antisemitism. Why does it cause them such a problem.

It is because there is this belief at the top of Labour, that if you clamp down hard enough you will get on top of it.  If you make it a taboo subject it will whither away.  Not strong leadership as many of his supporters have been parroting, but rather pressured into macho politics.  This rarely has a happy ending.

Cheers for his ruthlessness from his followers.  Just what the world needs now, another ruthless leader.

Beware the cheerleaders, they are notoriously fickle.

Most worrying however is that his actions have won plaudits from the Daily Mail.Already his supporters have their identity.  Starmertroopers they are labeled.  That's really going going to take the Labour Party in the right direction.

He has sacked RLB for the reason of contributing to an antisemitic conspiracy theory.  Now where did he got that one from.

RLB was wrong in the attribution of an activity to the Israeli secret service. 

It was a mistake. 

Antisemitic.  Are we to believe that the Israeli secret service doesn't get up to dodgy actions around the globe. As do the secret services of numerous other countries.  They could all teach RLB a thing or two about conspiracy theories. And are we supposed to believe that if she had made such an error involving, say, the Russian secret service, or South African secret service, she would have been sacked.

No it's the fact that in the Labour Party, Israel is off limits.

Sir Kier, he of supposed forensic and considered approach, is guilty of playing to the chosen audience. He can't resist it, he's a lawyer

It is right that we should condemn abusive and threatening behavior and language,  whoever it is directed against, but without favour.

Sir Kier Starmer has made promises, in this regard, that he should not have made and cannot deliver.

He should not have placed the issue of antisemitism as a priority of intolerance over and above BAME people, or disability discrimination or many of the other intolerances that pervade the Labour party. He is giving assurances to Jewish groups as if they have a superior status. That, in itself causing disquiet.

Before making these utterances he should follow the evidence.

The recent Labour Party's ( leaked ) Report. Shows that antisemitism is not widespread in the Labour Party.   Although these findings are unpalatable to sections of the Party, the fact is, it shouldn't have higher priority than issues of intolerance against  many other groups, given the facts.  That it is given such prominence, perhaps shows the strength of it's lobbying.

The language that is used by Starmer , such as " zero tolerance " and " tear antisemitism out by the roots ", is unhelpful and condemns his efforts to failure.

First. It is not clear, what to many, constitutes antisemitism.

A survey by the Jewish Policy Research  found that about 5% of the UK public were antisemitic.  But this figure increased to about 15% if certain questions were added.  Questions such as " do you think that Jews have too much power, proportional to their numbers ".  If the answer was affirmative, it was regarded that the respondent had antisemitic views.

No. The respondent has observed that a large number of large financial, industrial and commercial enterprises, are headed or owned by prominent Jewish people.  In the public mind this equates to influence and power and yes, disproportionate to Jewish numbers. 

Not antisemitism, but observation. 

Similarly if it was observed that such organisations and enterprise was headed or owned by Black people, there would probably be a similar conclusion.

Antisemitism is a complex issue Sir Kier.  Not to he treated as some infection to be squeezed out.

Why is antisemitism associated so strongly with the left.

Socialists speak out and criticise right wing regimes and right wing policies.  Activists go further and sometimes demonstrate against them.  

Whether it is against corruption in South Africa, right wing policies in South  America or Eastern Europe.

Such criticism is regarded as legitimate in the Labour Party, indeed often applauded. It is not racist or discriminatory.

The Israeli government is right wing and enact right wing policies.  This is fact not prejudice. The left speak out and criticise.  This is not regarded as legitimate, but antisemitic. Therefore the left are antisemitic.  

I know.  It doesn't make sense. But that's politics.

It is also the case that many on the left, in particular, are sympathetic annd supportive of the Palestinians.  This has put them on a clear collision course with Jewish politicians and Jewish pressure groups.

And not least this perception is a weapon for the right of the party ( we are expected to call them moderates ) to beat the left.

So antisemitism is a problem of the left. Wrong.

Of course some on the left hold antisemitic views. But it would be Sir Kier's next big mistake to believe that it is unique to that wing.

The survey by the Jewish Policy Research found that antisemitic views were held by about 15% of the public. The same percentage as was found among Labour Party supporters.

However, the survey found that a higher percentage, about 18% of Conservative supporters, hold antisemitic views.

The facts therefore tell you that the  Left are no more antisemitic than the general population.  But also that the Right are more antisemitic than the Left.

Sorry to burst the bubble.

However,  what this survey also shows, is the folly of the Labour leaders " zero tolerance " promise.

It shows that approximately 8 million of the UK population hold antisemitic views.

Importantly for the Leader the survey contradict the Labour Party report, with findings equates to 75000 Labour Party members hold antisemitic views.

If you add to that the discriminatory views against BAME , the disabled,  people on benefit, rough sleepers and so on.  Kier Starmer's scourge approach and zero tolerance,  is  going to leave him a very lonely man in the Labour party.

However detailed research by Jewish Voice for Labour found the opposite.  That there was little evidence of significant antisemitism in the Labour party. A lower percentage than the public at large and significantly lower than that of the Right.

Confused.  So, either Starmer is using a very big sledgehammer to crack a very small nut, or the size of the problem is beyond him.

Either way from Crown Prosecution Service to Witchfinder General style leadership is not the answer to Labours problems here.

Education, understanding and tolerance is a much better way.  This, together with an acceptance that intolerance is not exclusive to the left.

Why do I care.  I am not usually that concerned in the shenanigans of English dominated affairs across the bridge, unless it affects us in Wales. ( that not English in a racial sense, but English in a factual sense. ). 

However it is worrying that some Welsh politicians have subscribed to the hang them and flog them approach.  Deluding themselves that it is " strong leadership ". 

Rather than a tolerant, equitable and considered approach in Wales. An approach that has a far better chance of addressing a very real problem.

Welsh Conservatives. No such thing.

There are, of course, Conservatives in Wales.  However the term Welsh Conservatives gives an impression that they are different breed to those in the UK.  They are not.

Conservatives in Wales are not autonomous. They are not independent of their masters in London and their policies are those of Conservative HQ.

They follow these policies even in the Welsh Assembly.  UK policies take precedence.

Their constant criticism of the Welsh Government in the present crisis, is concentrated on, that they are not following UK Conservative Government guidelines. This regardless of what is in the best interests of Wales.

Their electoral success is more closely aligned to UK party popularity, than any other party in Wales. There are no membership numbers for Wales publicly available.

The are financed directly from London.

They are not a Welsh party, but an outpost of Conservative central.

They are not allowed independent thought.  Follow the Party line.

The former leader Andrew R T Davies,  hardly a free thinker,  was sent back to take charge of the farm, for questioning Party policy.

The present leader, whatshisname,  wont suffer that fate. No comments,  no opinions, quiet as a little mouse.

So who votes for these Conservatives in Wales?

The Tory voters in Wales are not so very different than those in England. A couple of steps down in wealth perhaps.

There are the land and property owners who vote Conservative to stop the nasty socialists dividing up their land.

Then the new property owners with a nice house ( and a nice mortgage ) on a new estate. They are Conservative because they are now a step up.  Anyway they couldn't possibly support Corbyn and his like.  Perhaps the present Labour party leader is more to their taste.  He is a Sir after all.

And there are the greedy money grabbers, made rich by Tory culture.

But they are not the majority. The majority who,  if you meet them in the street,  look almost normal.  that is until you look into their eyes.  Then you see,  they are hypnotized.  In a trance.  Like a religious sect moving towards paradise.

They must be hypnotised.  It is the only logical explanation for supporting a Party led by a man who's next truthful statement will be his first.  And in Wales.  A Welsh Secretary who is a messenger of Westminster,  rather than Wales representative.  Who tells us that Wales should be grateful for the handout from London.

Its the promise, isn't it.  The way to the promised land is by following the Tory path.  A place is reserved for followers and to prove it they will put the promise on the side of a bus.

Trust us, the message goes.  By blindly following, we are well on the way to getting rid of those nasty Europeans.  We are better off already.  This coronavirus has shown we can do without European holidays.  Who wants Spain when we have Margate.

Just in case however, Dominic Cummings has has kindly offered to undertake the sacrifice of travelling to Monte Carlo ( not to be confused with Durham ) for a month, to ensure it is safe for us Brits.

Not all of us can go, of course, just a few of the chosen ones.  But something to aspire to.

Just like austerity.  only the wealthiest are protected from it.  But true believers suffer for the lesser good.

The leader of the Conservatives in Wales is not in that top group,  but he is aspiring to it.

Recently, the Conservatives in Wales have raised their heads above the parapets.  They have a plan,  they said.  A plan to help groups affected by the crisis.  The Welsh Government were already giving out aid.  This was a different plan,  they said,  only costing £250 million.  They were a little bit miffed to be told that the Welsh Government didn't have the money.

Now I am not known for helping out selfish types,  but here's a tip.

Why doesn't what'shisname,  or Darren Miller,  the voice of Tories in Wales,  scoot off up the M4, with permission of course.  They could then tap the boy Chancellor for a small loan.  They don't have to justify it,  Tory's don't,  just argue they are in the same " Party " and the " Union ", all in together.

They can then return triumphant waving the cheque,  one up on Welsh Labour.

So why do people in Wales vote Conservative.  Not the self serving wealthy,  or the fantasy wealthy,  but the rest.

Conservatives in Wales are not going to be in power in the Welsh Assembly.  Nobody likes them or trusts them,  to join any coalition with them.  So they are not going to be deciding policy.  They aren't even very good in opposition.

At UK level the Tory party and Government are led by self serving fantasists.  Sensible people wouldn't want to support them,  would they?

So it has to be the trance.

Brought about by the sheer volume of promises.  By the belief that paradise is in the gift of the Tories and that only good is the prize of the followers.

The Welsh Labour Government should commission our world leading researchers to seek a vaccine against this hypnotic state.

This strain of selfishness in society will then be weakened and may eventually die out.

Why is Welsh Labour afraid of Independence?

#Why is Welsh Labour afraid of Independence?

Welsh Labour shy away from the Independence debate and yet it is an important constitutional issue,
They appear wedded to the Union.

Please can I have some more

Why?

Who do we mean by Welsh Labour in this context. Is it the Welsh Labour government, or the members.?
One of the problems is that Welsh Labour is too often defined by the actions of their AMs, or even UK Labour.

According to the public opinion polls, for what they are worth, between 250,000 and 650,000 people in Wales would support Independence, according to whichever poll you choose. it is therefore feasible that many of Welsh Labours members are among that number. However except for a few activists their views are not heard on the matter. Why don't they speak up, well perhaps  it's because they never have.

Why are Labour AMs,  The Welsh Labour government, afraid of Independence, or even raising the Independence debate?

Perhaps its the fear of Government, proper, real Government.
Presently the Government of Wales is a distribution centre. It has a lump of money given to it and it doles it out.

Wales is a passive recipient of an allocation of money.  the money is to provide public services.  Whether it is a fair allocation the Wales Government cannot decide. It cannot increase the total or control the amount, it just distributes it according to perceived priorities. Wales has no other income. They cannot borrow to invest, all major projects in Wales are at the discretion of Westminster. The Welsh Government's  help to business in the Covid crisis, was at the expense of other services. The dependence on Westminster has not been helpful to the Wales economy, think of  the failure to invest in the Swansea bay lagoon and electrification of the rail system to West Wales as two examples. Recent reports have also highlighted that Wales has only received 75% of the UK average investment in Transport infrastructure and Research and Development.

The Wales Labour supports the status quo, indeed agreed the financial settlement.

Twenty years of devolution, under this system and with a Wales Labour government, has led to a Wales, the poorest not only of the UK nations, but of the UK regions. With wages  in Wales significantly less than the UK average and business productivity lower. Education standards below average, 200,000 children in poverty and the Wales NHS in a mess (workers excepted.) Roads need fixing, public services cut and insufficient money to deal with increasing flood risks.

Welsh governments answer is to rely on the " benevolence" of Westminster to hand over the means to solve these problems.  The First Minister of Wales like Oliver Twist, holding out the bowl begging for more.

It is too comfortable for them not to have to make the economic and social decisions that other governments throughout the world make daily. Decisions on taxes, investment, borrowing and growing the economy etc. To always have someone else to blame.

it is also dishonest.  They know full well that with the present constitutional constraints and economic and legislative powers they cannot deliver meaningful change.
They also insult the Welsh people, by suggesting, by this approach, that with planning and leadership, they do not have the skills, resourcefulness and resolution, to stand on our own feet.

When will Welsh Labour learn that Wales is insignificant to Westminster and that there is a reckoning for this fence sitting.  Welsh Labour is increasingly losing public support. Not only is it being blamed for its own failings, but also for things outside its control. The Mr Micawber approach that something will turn up, will no longer do. the consequence is handing the initiative to the Tories whose only ambition is power.

The nearest that Welsh Labour has come to addressing Independence, is the pronouncement of the First Minister, Mark Drakeford, that "Wales support for the Union is not unconditional".
Perhaps he should enter the Independence debate by telling the Welsh public what those conditions are.

What to do about the North

What to do about the North

#North Wales is causing a problem.
Not only did they vote in a raft of Tory MPs but they even caused the Welsh Government to consider opening an office there.
They are becoming rebellious.

The Government seems to have the solution though.  It appears that the want to hive off North Wales to England.

How do I know this.

Wales very own  North/South HS rail link

I have recently been reading the Wales Government commissioned report for " The Case for investment in the Wales rail infrastructure ". The Barry Report.
They point out,  in the report,  the woeful lack of investment in the Wales rail infrastructure.  1% UK investment although Wales has 11% of the UK railway network. network.


They point to the massive £60 billion ( soon to be £100 billion ) investment in HS2, £20 billon Cross Rail, the proposed £30 billion Cross Rail 2 and  proposed £70 billion in the "Northern Powerhouse" rail infrastructure. All these in England.
The report also highlights that the effect of HS2 on Wales is an expected gain of £50 million to the North Wales economy and an expected loss of £200 million to South Wales per year.
it is also the case that rail travellers from South Wales to North Wales and vice versa have a tortuous 41/2 hour journey, during which they have to travel in and out of England.

The answer.

North Wales future is with England.  the Document argues that rail investment should be used to speed up rail links on the North Wales network to Liverpool and Manchester.
Despite stating that "the analysis is clear, investment in rail infrastructure is required to support a stronger, inclusive and more equitable economy,"  nowhere in the Report is there a plan for a North Wales to South Wales rail link. No plan for an integrated Wales. No mention of a "Wales Powerhouse."


So there you have it. There are plans for the Metro. That will take us north to Treherbert, Merthyr and Ebbw Vale,  so that must be the new border.
There is no plan to complete the network between Carmarthen and Aberystwrth, so maybe Aberystwrth will have to go.  I don't know what they will do about the National Library.
So there's the plan. No more worries about North South links.  No more worries about taking back Tory seats.  A smaller more compact Wales,  easier to finance and govern.

However perhaps they intend to ask Westminster for the money for Wales High Speed rail. Good luck with that.

Or perhaps like England, sorry UK, they could borrow the money. No, not allowed.

So it seems my original theory is right.

I will miss Rhyl though, I had good holidays there.