The Pros Cons and Cons of Wales and the Union.

Wales couldn't have managed the costs of covid without Westminster.

£5.9 billions given to Wales. The vaccines Westminster has supplied. All the military to help.

To this the Wales First Minister applauds and the leader of Plaid does his goldfish act.

And it's a con. It's misleading the Welsh public.

The £5.9 billion is a very small share of the very large amount that the UK Chancellor borrowed to deal with Covid. Wales wouldn't have received any help, only that England/UK needed it.

A self governing Wales could have borrowed in the same way.

Next con. The UK Chancellor has, according to the Office for Budget Responsibility, borrowed almost £400 billion to deal with covid.

This being so, Wales' population share should be £19 billion. 

So if Wales has received £5.9 billion. Where is the other £13 billion gone? Someone's had it and it's not Wales.

Think what help could be given to Welsh businesses, tourism, hospitality

health,social care and individuals with an extra £13 billion.

After all Wales pays a population share of servicing the debt.

As for vaccines. Yes the purchasing power of the UK secured a cheaper deal and Wales as a small country would have paid a higher price.

It would however have secured vaccines in the same way as other small countries. 

Had it been able to act individually in the beginning of the pandemic, it would not have  to rely on others for supplies.

It could have acted sooner, vaccinated quicker.

As for cost. Israel, for example, had to pay top price for it's vaccine supply, but as its government said, in total, the equivalent to two days of lockdown costs.

So Better Together. But better for who?

The beneficiary of retaining the Union is England.

If the Union were to split, England, which is in essence the UK and vice versa, would lose considerable status in the eyes of the world. Indeed would stand to lose its special position at the UN Security Council. 

England/UK would be diminished.

England is a net consumer of resources.

It presently benefits from supplies of resources, electricity and water from Wales and Scotland.

If the Union should split England would no longer have control of those supplies.

It is argued that England/UK provides the finance for Wales to pay its way, 

England/UK has no money. They have a £2 trillion debt. They borrow money to pay their way and on the expensive projects they undertake.

They then give Wales a very small portion of that money through an outdated and unfair formula.

The money allocated does not relate to any specific spending requirement, nor whether it is sufficient, nor under any timescale decided by the Welsh government. It is entirely dependent on England's requirements.

England/UK treasury receives Wales population share contribution to servicing the debt. it's not Wales debt, they are not allowed to have debt. Wales does not get it's population share of money raised from the " National " debt.

Prior to covid. In the years 2015 to 2020, the UK debt increased by £500 billions. Money borrowed for expensive projects ( all in England ) and to fund overspend.

Wales population share should have been approximately £25 billion.

The 2015 devolution settlement allocated less than £1 billion capital spending to Wales spread over five years. 

England has the advantage of that.

Wales revenues are collected on a UK wide basis. They are disaggregated between the UK nations, as HMRC states, using estimates, assumptions and adjustments, therefore revenues allocated to Wales and Wales' so called financial deficit must be treated with caution.

HMRC conceded that corporate revenues from businesses operating in Wales are often allocated to company headquarters located in England.

Wales public services don't benefit from these revenues. That revenue goes to England.

Wales, together with Scotland and N Ireland, contribute to HS2 railway link.

Although no part of it is in Wales, it is regarded as an England and Wales project and therefore Wales gets no Barnett tradeoff, although Scotland and N Ireland will receive hundreds of millions of pounds through Barnett.

It has been estimated that Wales will be robbed of approximately £500 millions. 

It has also been estimated that rather than benefiting Wales, HS2 will be detrimental to the Welsh economy to £150 millions per year.

So what does Wales get out of the Union.

It gets a budget deficit. Wales deficit is a consequence of being part of the UK. The deficit wouldn't exist as an Independent country.

Wales budget spending, contains items not spent in Wales. They are amounts that the Westminster governments say Wales must pay to UK spending.

This arrangement leads Wales to have the largest military expenditure, per capita, of any nation in Europe.

The total Wales spending outside Wales is £7.2 billions pa. Amounts totally unrealistic for a country the size of Wales.

This money does not benefit the Welsh economy, nor does Wales get revenues associated with it.

Wales pays the state pension in Wales from its government expenditure.

State pensions throughout the UK is legally the responsibility of the UK government.

This costs Wales £5.9 billions pa.

Wales loses £1.6 billions through the UK's " revenue gap ".  That is Wales' population share of the money HMRC loses through tax evasion, tax avoidance, inefficiencies etc.

Wales has no control over that,

Wales can't borrow as other nations do. To invest in the economy or infrastructure.

Wales can't set up its own tax and benefit system. One that's more efficient, equitable and better suited to Wales economy, taking the best practices of other countries.

Wales can't grow its economy. The Silk Commission on Devolution states this specifically " Under the present constitutional arrangements, the Wales government cannot grow the Welsh economy. They can only manage a given allocation ".

Wales can't make trade deals with other countries, independently of the UK. Only the UK government can make such deals on behalf of Wales.

Wales can't authorise or invest in large infrastructure projects. Wales must gain the consent of the Westminster government.

Wales can't authorise or invest in large energy projects. Wales must gain the consent of the Westminster government.

Wales does not have income over that felt necessary to run it's public services and maintain its infrastructure.

Wales doesn't have the money to deal with emergencies such as covid, flooding and the removal of dangerous coal waste tips. 

Wales has to ask for such finance from Westminster and it is entirely at the discretion of the Westminster government.

So what are the pros.

Still looking.

 

Scotland will be £11 billions poorer with Independence.

Should it be a worry for Wales Independence?

Unionists have failed in presenting any credible reasons for maintaining the Union.

They have not persuaded that Better Together has benefited the constituent parts of the UK.

Having failed in this, they fall back on the Brexit tactic, of not letting the truth get in the way of a persuasive story.

They seek to undermine the case for Independence.

The EU stealing our money, has now become the dire fate awaiting nations who dare to break from the Union.

As the move to Independence has grown in strength, then the attacks on it, using dubious, but effective tactics, intensify. 

Scotland, more advanced on Independence, is experiencing this currently.

Wales will increasingly come under the same pressures, as Independence here grows and it is therefore worth putting these attacks themselves, under scrutiny.

The Unionist camp seek to present their assertions under a cloak of apparent credibility. They will cite their data as , government sources, or official figures, or increasingly academic reports.

It was one of these that caused the excitement recently among Unionist supporting media.

Scotland Independence will make it £11 billions poorer.

Headlines in the Anti Independence Scottish newspapers and in the English based, Unionist supporting media. The Mail, Guardian and Independent, among them.

They had latched on, without question, to an academic paper presented by the Centre for Economic Performance, part of the London School of Economics.

The Reality.

The study asserted that an Independent Scotland would be £11 billions, poorer irrespective of whether it rejoined the EU. The media loved it. Scots worse off by £2800 per head if they left the UK.  This by a "non partisan"  report.

The report. Disunited Kingdom, Brexit, trade and Scottish Independence.

It argues that the Scottish people have a right to know the costs and benefits of Independence, in making their decisions.

And yet we find that this " neutral " report has examined and presented only the costs, while ignoring the benefits.

The £11 billions of the report is exclusively assuming the costs of trade, the cross border costs, of Scotland leaving the UK.

It argues, for example, that Scotland will suffer more expensive imports of between 15% and 30%. Such a wide variation, suggesting a high degree of uncertainty in the research calculations.

The dodgy methodology continues ( I almost called it a dodgy dossier ), by advancing a calculation of a Scotland deficit based only on trade and ignoring the effects of currency, changes in investment flows, taxation policy, new export policy decisions and the ability of Independent countries to boost growth.

In order to reach their conclusions, the authors make some unusual assumptions.

They state that this deficit remained, whether or not Scotland, rejoins the EU.

There is no advantage with regard to trade tariffs.

Scotland would therefore be the only country trading within the EU not to have a tariff free advantage.

 

The report then uses the fact that Scotland would face border trade costs with the UK, it's largest trading partner, to justify its findings.

In doing so it places Scotland in a category on it's own, for it's the UK's publicly stated policy to encourage free free trade.

Tariff free trade for New Zealand to which it exports £1.7 billions. Singapore to which it exports £5 billions. Canada to which it exports £11 billions and Japan to which it exports £15 billions.

It is not credible that it would not seek free trade with Scotland, to which England exports £67 billions or with Wales to which England exports almost £40 billions.

That this report fails to acknowledge these points, further diminishes its credibility.

The authors are also measuring long term effects in a long term forecast. So long term, as to become not valid and credible.  As Keynes famously said to those economic forecasters careless enough to undertake such self indulgent penchants in a fast changing world that " in the long run we are all dead ".

Then for some strange reason, the authors seek to undermine their own research.

The authors state. As with all economic forecasts, our estimates are subject to uncertainty and should be treated with caution. We do not know exactly how large an effect Scottish Independence and Brexit will have on trade costs and although we use the best available data and modelling techniques, our model is an imperfect representation of the global economy.

But all the media wants are the headlines.

So what of the motives behind this report.

The authors say it is to make the voters aware of the costs and benefits of Independence.

This clearly is not the case with such an unbalanced presentation.

But the Centre for Economic Performance  has a history with Scottish Independence and is far from impartial.

The CEP is a pro business global research body funded by a mixture of UK government and private finance.

This particular report acknowledged and thanked Jim Gallagher for his input. 

Jim Gallagher was the main economic adviser to the Better Together Campaign 2014 and an opponent of Scottish Independence.

The work of CEP is overseen by a policy committee headed by Sir Nicholas MacPherson, former boss of the UK Treasury during the 2014 referendum.

He broke with tradition by using civil servants to produce a stream of, so called, reports attacking the case for Independence.

He used the excuse that the SNP was " seeking to destroy the fabric of the state ".

He publicly urged Tory and Labour opposition to block Independent Scotland from using the pound as currency.

The CEP was active during the 2014 referendum, producing a series of reports, seeking to undermine the case for Independence.

The then director, Professor John Van Reeson, published his own Independence paper and likened Scotland to become a depressed Spain  "without the sunshine ".

This response is to what can be seen to be a Scottish issue, but it relates similarly to Wales. Similar attacks are coming to Wales.

As Wales Independence becomes stronger, these tactics become more frequent.

It is to show that such documents can be shown to be flawed and as in this case not at all impartial.

They will be used by opponents of Independence and we in Wales must be prepared to show them for what they are.

Dodgy document propaganda.

 

 How to turn Wales' budget deficit into a surplus?

answer.

Make Wales Independent.

How to turn a £13.7 billion budget deficit into a £2 billion budget surplus., without raising taxes.

Mark Drakeford, Wales First Minister has said that Wales future is better with the " Union "

This is an article that shows the opposite to be true.

That the inability to make important decisions is costing Wales and conversely the ability of an Independent Wales to freely make them, improves Wales economic position.

It is this that sets the conditions to turn the deficit to surplus.

This article does not attempt to go beyond Wales budget. It is not an economic plan, that's for another day, but shows that on day one of Independence, Wales has a budget surplus, not the deficit, Independence detractors trumpet.

It is important, essential even, that Wales starts it's Independent journey, with an economy that can pay its way. That the concentration is on the country's growth and development, not finding the means to pay for it's essential services.

So exchanging the deficit into a surplus. A little bit of magic? Or just claiming what's fair.

Firstly, To understand that the deficit is the product of Wales present constitutional arrangements. Not the product of an independent Wales.

Next. No widespread changes to the present budget are necessary in order to make this transformation..

The deficit is arrived at in a report on Wales financial position, by the Wales Governance Centre.

The authors conceded that Wales financial data is difficult to find as the data is collected on a UK wide basis by HMRC and ONS. There is no collection by Wales, for Wales.  It is then allocated to Wales using various methodologies.

It is presented,  subject to " estimates ", " assumptions " and " adjustments".

The report estimates that Wales revenues are £27.1 billions.

Wales spending is £40.8 billions.

Wales' budget deficit is therefore £13.7 billions.

This is not the budget of an Independent Wales however.

Revenues.

Corporation tax is apportioned to Wales in the sum of £1.3 billions.

However HMRC allocates much of corporate tax to the location of the business headquarters. This disadvantages Wales, as many of its businesses have headquarters elsewhere.

As the report found, accurate data is difficult to find, however as a guide. If corporate taxes were apportioned on a population share, as with most other taxes, Wales should have received £2.7 billions.

An increase of £1.4 billions.

Wales tax system would ensure that taxes are paid where profit is made.

HMRC has conceded that £35 billions of revenue is " lost ", avoidance, evasion, inefficiencies, etc.

Wales' population share of these losses is £1.6 billions.

A Wales tax system preventing these losses would add £1.6 billions to Wales revenues.

The financial report found that Wales raised less than the UK average in Income Tax and NI. £5.4 billions less.

The reason is the lower level of earnings in Wales. £1690 per person less than the UK average.

This was brought about by lower investment in the Wales economy. Also by the higher than UK average number of public sector workers in Wales. Any Westminster policies in capping public sector earnings, impacts, disproportionately on Wales.

Wales free of Westminster policies and investing, to regain the previous lack of investment in skills and technology, would raise Wales worker earnings to UK levels, thereby adding £5.4 billions to Wales revenues.

Expenditure.

The report estimated Wales expenditure as £40.8 billions.

However only £33.6 billions is spent in Wales. The remainder, called " unidentified items ", is what Westminster says Wales must pay to UK wide spending. Defence, International affairs, border control and debt repayment etc.

This amounts to £7.2 billions. An independent Wales wouldn't be responsible for these payments and would make its own arrangements in these areas.

Wales budget deficit contains a payment for state pensions. This amounts to £5.8 billions. Although Wales revenues are debited to this amount, Wales has not received the lifetime contributions of tax and NI paid by these pensioners. That has gone to the UK government.

However on Independence, Wales won't be responsible for this payment, that will be the responsibility of the UK government. 

The UK government is legally responsible to pay the pensions of all pensioners who have paid their NI contributions, wherever they choose to live.

Although Wales will be responsible for new pensioners as they become eligible to claim in the new nation, that has been estimated at. 5% per year. £290 million in the first year.

An expenditure saving of £5.5 billions.

With Just five changes to the budget, claiming what rightfully belongs to Wales.

Revenue becomes.

£27.1 billions + £1.4 billions + £1.6 billions = £30.1 billions and £5.4 billions to come.

Expenditure becomes

£40.8 billions - £7.2 billions - £5.5 billions = £28.1 billions.

So. Not a Wales budget deficit of £13.7 billions, but.

A Wales budget surplus of £2 billions rising to £7.4 billions.

There are costs to Wales Independence. They will need to be addressed in an economic plan and in the context of a growing economy.

This article merely emphasises that an Independent Wales goes into that plan, not with a budget deficit, but a surplus.

 

 

LET'S MAKE A WISH FOR INDEPENDENCE.

So that's how Wales is going to get Independence. It appears that's what many supporters think. This is the way it is going to happen. Wish hard enough, fingers crossed and it will appear.

There is another group who seem to believe that if Westminster treats Wales badly enough, the Welsh people will rise up in  revolution.

A third and enthusiastic group are convinced that through the efforts of Yes Cymru, Independence is inevitable.

We could wait for Scotland to do it and then jump on the bandwagon. That however is out of Wales control.

Of course Independence is not going to happen through any of these routes.

So. I ask myself, what are the thousands, crying out for Independence, actually doing to bring it on. 

The conclusion. Except for a notable minority. Very little.

We see children in poverty, homes bought up as second homes while Welsh people are homeless. We see a potentially vibrant Welsh economy stagnating. We are bullied from Westminster and an impotent Welsh government closing their eyes to it and what do we do. We talk, we debate , we sometimes shout a little, but we do nothing.

Oh yes. You go to these rallies. Well it's a day out, isn't it.

I know.  You would go to the Labour party meeting and tell them what you think, but it's darts night or strictly or celebrity. But you do your bit on Twitter or Facebook.

Yes, bread and circuses are alive and well in Wales.

So what is this, doing your bit, mean?  Telling all who will listen that lots of other small countries do it, so Wales can do it.

It doesn't necessarily follow. That they have different economies, different cultures and different people. That they clearly wanted it more, is disregarded, but then, it's worth shouting about. 

Then,Wales is not too poor, while it's opponents dangle a £13.7 billion deficit in front of the Welsh public. The fact that about two thirds of it will be removed by the act of Independence alone, is rarely explained.

None of these, getting to be almost throw away lines, will wash with the wider Wales public. They don't particularly care about how other countries function. They want to know how Wales will function. Will an Independent Wales be able to pay its way and will an Independent Wales be a better Wales. Will they be better off.

The technicalities will come later, but until you cross this bridge.

So how do you do it, this sharing of a vision. At the moment it's shared with about a thousand others at most, in a Facebook group, or Twitter. 

Only another one and a half million to go.

Here's a tale to help you on your way.

In the constituency of Blaenau Gwent, a Labour stronghold.  The Labour Party attempted to impose a candidate for the election, on the 

constituency and against the wishes of the local party, who had their own local candidate. 

The Labour Party would not relent, so a group left the party and set up their own political party to fight the election. It was to become the People's Voice. It was a single issue party. The right for local people to choose their own candidate.

The People's Voice had little campaign organisation, little money and were opposed by an established political party campaign.

The People's Voice overturned a previous Labour majority of 19000 and turned it to a 9000 majority of their own.

They did it with a small dedicated group of activists who worked tirelessly. They leafleted continuously through letterboxes, town squares, market days and sporting events. They left leaflets at sympathetic venues. Adverts in local papers. All telling a single message. They sought donations for their work. And they won.

The moral of this story. You can overcome great odds, you can win over the public, but it takes real belief, real dedication and real hard work. 

Independence is going to be a roll your sleeves up graft, not the genteel exchanges presently being displayed.

Imagine small groups across Wales, working in the same way as People's Voice, promoting Independence. 

Then you won't need to make a wish.

There is a Part 2.

New Wales. New Way.

 # A case for Welsh Independence.

After the charade in the Sennedd about Independence, it is back where it belongs. With the people. It is too important to be left with politicians anyway.

They,  it appears, have given up on the future of Wales.

Welsh Labour's plan for the future, is not to have a plan.  The new way forward is " a strong devolution settlement ".  Is this the " strong devolution settlement " agreed just three years ago ( 2017 Devolution Settlement ) as a good, long lasting settlement.  Now described by the same Welsh Labour government as outdated and not fit for purpose.

Plaid Cymru are floundering over the issue and the other parties  are irrelevant to Wales future.

So. it's Independence. It really is the only way.  The task is to convince the Welsh people. Convince them with credible argument.

A clear case has to be made. Something that hasn't been done so far. A modest first step in that direction.

The first step in a People's Plan. 

Wales is too small.  Wales is too poor.  Wales economy is too weak.. So it goes on.

Wales pays out more than it takes in and depends on Westminster to cover the difference.  The infamous deficit.

This to make us think we have to continue to be that sticky out bit attached to England.  That Wales can't stand on it's own feet.

What is ignored, is that within people's lifetime,  Wales was the industrial powerhouse of the UK.

And within recent history, Wales was an industrial powerhouse of the world.

If Wales had been an independent nation at that time, it would have been one of the wealthiest and influential in the world.

The problem was however, that Wales never controlled or got long term benefits from that wealth.  That went elsewhere.

What also has to be remembered,  is that Wales only has to support 3.2 million people and provide high quality, high paid employment to half that number. 

England's economy by comparison has to support 55 million people and. 39 million jobs.  They are not more innovative than the Welsh, have relatively fewer. national resources, consume more than it provides and although they have more larger enterprises, they are invariably owned by foreign companies.

Wales has nothing to learn from the English economy.

So now we have to do things differently.

There are four essential elements.

A united Wales.

The economic case.

A different approach.

And for everyone who has an ambition for a better Wales to play a part.

This is intended to be a People's Plan.  For all to contribute.  Through this exchange a coherent, credible way forward for Wales to take control of its future will take shape.

The first step.

An independent Wales must be a united Wales and the Welsh Labour government has done no favours here.

They have managed to alienate the deprived Valley communities and the disconnected North.

No mean feat.

Two decades of Welsh Labour administration has witnessed the poorest communities of twenty years ago, at the start of devolution, remain the poorest today.  Hardly an endorsement of socialist values of redistribution of wealth.

The North, for it's part feel abandoned, and the neglect by Welsh Labour government has had the consequence of  the political shift there.

The poor links between North and South Wales, particularly transport, are a major impediment to the One Wales aim.

People of the North of the country can travel to Leeds, Newcastle and London, quicker than  to it's own Capital city,

The Welsh government has had twenty years of devolution and has failed to address the the issue.

The problem is that the Welsh government, over the past decades, have been minding Wales on behalf of Westminster.  They have been given the rules to follow and a bit of money, in order to stop the natives becoming restless.

The Welsh Labour government can see no future where Wales is not tied to England.  Accordingly all infrastructure decisions are directed at connection to England.

The Welsh government always has one eye looking over the border, instead of keeping both eyes on Wales.

There are already two arterial road connections.  In North and South Wales.  Both running West to East.

The money being spent on the Heads of the Valley road, another West to England link, could have been allocated to improving North/South road links.  Yes, before some wise critic jumps in,  the money was mainly EU grant money, but it was awarded there, because that's what the government asked for. The EU gives priority to schemes linking communities within small nations so its would likely, have been granted to that end. ( had we asked ).

The Barry report,  commissioned by the Wales Govt to examine an all Wales rail network, makes no reference to a North /South rail investment.  All concentration was, once again on West to East.

However, we are where we are.

Any plausible Independence plan must address these issues.  They are however long term in planning and investment.

Our immediate task is to move to unification with short term measures.  To demonstrate that Independence is for all of Wales.

Many of the Valley problems can be addressed by concentrating investment there.  It must be an early policy decision in our plans.  They are presently areas without hope.  Independence is pointless unless it can provide that hope.

North Wales believes it is disconnected, abandoned.

The first step here is for a North Wales Sennedd.  A Sennedd 2.  Not a Welsh government office, not a token, but a fully functioning section of the Welsh Assembly.  All AS/MS members of North Wales constituencies will be based  there, as will their staff and government administration.

The business of the Sennedd can be conducted by video and digital means.  Such links to be to the most modern and efficient system,  for this is the future of Welsh government.

Even when the physical links are improved, it is envisaged that this system will remain.

Accepting there may be occasion when gatherings in Cardiff bay will be required.

The people of North Wales will have a centre of Welsh government that they can relate to.  Representatives and government administration more accessible..

Mid Wales is not forgotten, however a Sennedd 3 is not feasible.  The virtual Assembly arrangements apply equally to that region.

This is only a start, but a positive start.  

There is a cost, but that's the price of democracy.

The Welsh economy, the biggest obstacle to any plan for Wales to look after itself.

 Or so we are constantly told .

So to the Welsh economy. 

And this deficit, is it real and is it important.

First. To debunk a few economic myths.

The UK economy is supporting Wales.  Wales ( and the other devolved nations ) are a drag on the UK economy.  That's the often repeated story some would have us believe. An economic myth.

England is 86% of the UK economy.  Even imagining the other three devolved nations were all doing very badly, it would only account for about 14% of the UK economic activity. Hardly enough to be a drag. No. These accusations are a smokescreen to hide the fact that the problem is England and that Wales is doing it's bit to help them out.

Wales supports England with free water, free electricity and revenue from Welsh businesses.  A rented office in London with three people can be the HQ of a company based in Wales,  employing 250 people and making £50 million.  The profits go to London and the tax revenue to England.  That's the way it works.

And then there's the borrowing.

The Westminster government borrows money for it's spending plans or overspending.  It then gives Wales it's share for the Welsh government spending plans.

That's what they would have us believe.

In the five years from 2015 to 2020, the UK  National Debt has risen by over £500 billion ( and still rising ).  This money to finance UK spending plans and the deficit.

In these five years Wales share of should have been, per capita,  about £25 billion.  Indeed within the Welsh budget is a figure, currently at £2.2 billion per year, as Wales contribution to repayment of the debt.

In reality, the 2015 Devolution spending agreement allocates less than £1 billion spread over five years for investment in the Welsh economy.

Even with the exceptional support payments for coronavirus, Wales has still received less than £4 billion.

Wales is allocating £2.2 billion a year to repay a myth.  It would have been better off just keeping the repayments.

The truth is that the borrowing that has led to this Debt is as a result of financing England's spending plans and economic incompetence.

So to the deficit. Another economic smoke and mirrors

Wales, it is said, spends more than it earns and therefore has a financial ( fiscal ) deficit.

Is this so and is it important.

It is argued that in the Welsh economy,  Wales does not raise the revenue from taxation to pay it's way.  That it raises considerably less than the UK average, per head of population.

The reasons.  The wages in Wales are below average, as is business efficiency, productivity and profits.

With regard to spending,  Wales spends more than the average on benefit payments.  

The amount of deficit is arrived at by a study by Cardiff University, on behalf of the Welsh Govt.  This is generally accepted as Wales official deficit.

This shortfall is then covered by money from Westminster.  Hence Wales is reliant on Westminster.

So is this figure accurate and does it reflect the true state of the Welsh economy.

The answer is, no one really knows.

The authors of the report, present it with an important proviso.

" Individual data for Wales is difficult to find, as most is collected on an England and Wales basis.  Most of the data used are estimates the Office of National Statistics ".

HM Revenue and Customs who collect the taxes also state, that in allocating taxes between the four nations " For some taxes estimates are arrived at, using the best available data and statistical techniques, including assumptions and adjustments where necessary ".

Much of the problem appears to be in the allocation of taxes such as VAT and corporation tax, when the ownership of companies located in Wales lie outside Wales.

The report also states.

" Estimates presented reflect Wales fiscal position under current constitutional arrangements and as such are not a reflection of an Independent Wales ".

The statement acknowledges that spending decisions and revenue streams are affected by UK policy decisions.

So lots of estimates, assumptions, adjustments and provisos. relating to Wales economy.

With regard to spending, much of this relatively high spending on benefit payments is concentrated mainly on state pensions and unemployment and in work benefits.

This reflects the high proportion of older retired people.  The lower than average earnings affecting the in work benefits paid out.

There is no normal accounting mechanism for arriving at Wales income and expenditure. .Most of the revenue is not a record of actual money raised but an assessment based on comparison.

Much of the spending is based on an assessment of what Wales ought to pay towards UK wide spending.

So let's begin.

Wales raises £27.1 billion in revenue.

It spends £40.8 billion.

Hence a deficit of £13.7 billion. Wales can't pay it's way

Hang on though. Some of this spend is allocated expenditure of which, an Independent Wales wouldn't want and has no responsibility for.

So £40.8 billion.

£2.9 billion of spending is attributed to something called accounting and EU transactions.  Is it accurate,  is it real, is it necessary.  It is not Public Service spending by Wales.  So we will remove it.

£37.9 billion.

Then you have what is quaintly called " a non identified amount ".  This is what the UK government says we must pay towards things not directly related to Wales.

Public sector debt interest.  £2.2 billion.

Defence.  £1.8 billion.

International aid.  £0.5 billion.

Border Agency costs.  £250 million.

BBC.  Pensions and health costs for Britons abroad.

Total. £5.4 billion.

A Wales government would not be committed to these costs.  Nor are they fair.

At the present levels of per capita spending,  Wales is spending more than almost any other European country on defence.

The level of debt interest repayment allocated, is the equivalent of an ongoing per capita repayment of  the full UK debt,  even though Wales has not had a per capita share.  Nor indeed any say in it's accumulation.

Wales is expected to contribute to commitments made without consulting Wales. Projects to pay for without consulting Wales.  Borrowing without consulting Wales

HS2 £60 billion, and rising.  Cross Rail £19 billion. Cross rail 2 £32 billion. The so called Northern Powerhouse. £60 billion.

All in England all agreed without consulting the devolved nations.  Indeed as the Barry report highlights.  HS2 will have an adverse affect on the Welsh economy of £150 million per year.

So £5.4 billion we remove that.

So down to £32.5 billion.

One more.  The deficit contains £1.7 billion of capital investment. This again is not revenue or fiscal spending. So we remove that.

So down to £30.8 billion.

Fiscal spending.  Money for running the country's services  is in total.

£30.8 billion.

Less

£27.1 billion revenue ( and even that's a bit dodgy )

£3.7 billion.  Hardly a deficit at all.

Wales economy is influenced by UK policy decisions and the inability of the Welsh government to make influential decisions.

There is a net migration into Wales of 3000 pensioners per year.  They are attracted to the quality of life and environment of coastal Wales.

The Institute of Welsh Affairs has estimated the cost to the Welsh economy of £2 billion.  There is also the pressure on the health and social care service from the influx.

The inward net migration at such numbers would , over ten years, have created a pensioner population bigger than the combined indigenous populations of West Wales coastal towns of Cardigan, Aberporth, Aberaeron, New Quay and Aberystwyth.

This is not a point about ageism, but economics.  The inward pensioners will have paid their working lives contributions of income tax and NI contributions elsewhere, someone else's revenue. Wales has the cost of their retirement.  The Welsh government can do nothing about this situation under present conditions.

The study also finds that future economic scenario also poses problems.

Wales is projected to have a higher than average pensioner population and a lower than average working, tax paying age group. A situation that doesn't help the Welsh economy.

One solution is to attract inward migration of working age, tax payers.  To do so Wales would have to have control of its own immigration policy.

Still with the deficit.

Revenue.

The report states that Wales revenue from income tax and NI contributions is significantly lower than the UK average.  £1690 per head lower.  Caused, as we have seen, by lower than average wages.

The report authors state that if these revenues were raised to the UK average it would increase Wales revenue by £5.4 billion.

This is achieved by raising wages and salaries to the UK average .

Wales average wages and salaries are estimated at 89% of the rest of the UK.

To do so  will require investment in improving training in worker and management skills, as well as improved production technology.

It also requires new thinking in the type of industry developed by and attracted to Wales.

A self governing Wales would have the means of investment in the same way as all other nations.  It borrows it.

If Wales could borrow at the same percentage of GDP as the more prudent countries, Norway, Austria, for example, it could borrow £30 billion.  The equivalent, per head of population, to about £600 billion on a UK level.

That ought to do it.

So there we have an additional £5.4 billion revenue.  Wales is paying its way, even a bit over.  And £30 billion to invest.

The clever people at Cardiff University could probably find a few billion more. However they won't help unless commissioned by important people, or there's a Nobel nomination on offer.

There will be of course, additional costs for an Independent Wales.  In a Justice system, Treasury,  Revenue collection. Some of these though, already exist in varying stages.

There will also be savings. No Wales Secretary of State office. £5 million saving there.

But paying our way is not enough. There is a limit to what can be raised by domestic earnings and spending.  Wales must generate wealth.  Wealth to reduce the costs of borrowing. For education, health, social care, housing roads, transport infrastructure and to regenerate our depressed towns and communities. In short improve the welfare of the Welsh people.

How do we start. Where do we start.

Wales economy is a mish mash.  Economics through reaction.

Thousands of well paid skilled jobs were lost in steel and coal, together with well paid skilled jobs in the supply chain. Engineering companies and the like.

The panic policy to replace them meant that Wales was inundated with public sector jobs shipped across from England. DVLA, Passport Office, Statistics Office, Companies House and plenty of Unemployment offices. These together with an  increase in public sector employment generated by Wales itself.

Wales has a higher proportion of civil servants per head. than London.

These are not jobs in wealth creating industry. The study shows that the public sector workers raise more revenue than private sector workers.  The reason however, because of low pay in the private sector, rather than a high earning public sector.

Revenues in Wales are more sensitive to UK policy decisions due to the higher. percentage of Welsh workers in the public sector.

And yet we keep blundering on.

And so to the Welsh government magical spending announcements.  £10 million extra for this or that.  They are creating an illusion. It doesn't come from the back of the sofa, it comes from somewhere else.  Some areas become a priority, so someone else loses out.

It must be so. Wales has a fixed budget.

That will only change when Wales can grow and control it's own economy.

Wealth can only be created through industry and business and through Wales resources.  But not as we know it.

New Wales requires new thinking.  A new approach.

Wales produces wealth.  Wealth from businesses in Wales and from it's resources.  Not enough and not maximised.

The GDP of Wales is about  £75 billion.  Although Wales doesn't actually have a GDP as it doesn't raise revenues.  The figure is estimated using Wales GVA. ( the value of Wales goods and services ) and calculating GDP from there.  So it's another estimate.

This is highly likely to have underestimated Wales wealth.

This GDP must be grown. Not however the growth of old that devours scarce resources and damage the environment.

Take a journey through the Valleys.  See the greenery, the scenery, it wasn't always like this.  The New Wales approach must never reverse these improvements.

Wales can achieve growth by embracing a greener, high value industrial strategy.

The shortcomings in the present industrial strategy, is shown in the concentration on supporting job creating business rather than wealth creating.

The jobs created by these headline companies are of course welcome.  These businesses however, almost invariably take their wealth elsewhere.  Few have their headquarters in Wales and the profits and revenue goes elsewhere.

So to the new approach.

Wales produces more electricity than it uses. Twice as much, with the surplus valued at over £1.5 billion.  With investment it would be significantly more.  Wales gets none of this.  The surplus goes into the National Grid, to be used  by, guess who.

Severn Trent Water uses water supplied by Wales.  They make an annual profit of £500 million.  Wales, the supplier, gets nothing.

If they had the money and were allowed to.  The Welsh government could have invested in the Swansea lagoon project and other similar sites identified in Wales.  For a little over £1.5 billion, Wales could have a controlling interest in these ventures.

It is estimated that the value of electricity generated would exceed £120 million a year for anticipated 120 years.

The investment would be recovered in less than 20 years with Wales enjoying at least a further 100 years of revenue.

The UK government argued that the price being asked for the electricity from this source was too high.  However this would not be the case with the Welsh government investment.

Furthermore the lagoons offered more than just electricity generation to the Welsh economy.  Something ignored by the UK government.

The lagoon at Swansea, the most advanced with regard to planning, would also have been a major outdoor and tourist attraction.

It offered a marina, four marine parks, facilities for the docking of large cruise liners, as well as hotels and housing.  It would have provided electricity to 155000 households.

This was of no interest to the UK government, when rejecting the project, but would have been a multi million pound boost to the local and wider Welsh economy.

Wales must take a new approach to maximizing it's resources.  The philanthropic attitude must cease.  These resources are a means of income to Wales and the future has to be, nothing is for nothing.

Wales, as an independent country would no longer be restricted from makjing decisions regarding large scale energy projects, as it is at present.  

The potential from this sector is huge.

There are presently 16 enterprises in Wales developing marine energy projects.

They have invested, so far £96 million.  Their future investment is projected as £8.3 billion.

They would seek approximately £2 billion across the UK in revenue support.n

They also presently rely on UK consent for large scale energy projects.

The North Wales lagoon  Llandudno to Prestatyn proposal is anticipated to produce electricity for one million homes, 90% of Wales domestic requirement. In addition, among the additional benefits, the lagoon also offers coastal erosion protection.

An Independent Wales government would not need permission for these projects.  Furthermore investment by the Welsh government would reduce the need for revenue support.

It is estimated that for every £10 million invested in this sector £2.5 million is added to Wales GVA.

The New Wales approach would be to invest in these projects.  To become partners.  To protect Welsh interests.  To prevent benefits going outside Wales.  The companies developing the projects would of course have reasonable returns.  But so would Wales.

Wales has first class research in this field, has natural resources and ideal marine conditions for this energy production.

It is argued that through these projects and the others that follow, Wales can be leaders in this technology.

The export of this technology, skills, knowledge and intellectual property is estimated over future years to be worth £76 billion worldwide.  Wales can be at the forefront.

An Independent Wales would not need permission from anyone for these initiatives.

Marine power generation, together with Wales other carbon free energy sources, would make Wales a major player in energy generation.  Already an electricity exporter, investment will only increase that capacity.

Electricity in Wales has the real potential for a multi billion pound industry, or alternately used in Wales to provide cheaper energy for its own purposes.  Our choice.

Norway is the most successful country in utilizing energy generation.  It has become wealthy from energy production.  Norwegian electricity is sold throughout Europe.  It is owned by the Norwegian government.

We could do that.

The Scottish government owns the Scottish domestic water supply. Scottish household water charges are about £43 per home cheaper than in Wales.  That's over £50 million per year extra spending for the Welsh economy.

Wales must be prepared to take public ownership of it's resources.

The Welsh economy has lower than average productivity.  The businesses in Wales produce lower than average profits and Welsh workers earn lower than average wages.

Wales has a higher proportion of small and medium sized enterprises.

Although these have more potential for innovation , flexibility and growth, than large enterprise, in Wales they have suffered decades of underinvestment.  Underinvestment in technology, management and worker skills training.

The priority must be to channel more investment and professional support to small and medium sized enterprises.  They employ over 75% of the Welsh workforce.  They are more likely to be based in Wales and pay their taxes, in Wales.  They have more potential for flexibility and to grow the workforce and the business.  The workers trained in multi skills, easier to adapt to changing technology.

The Welsh government pays out millions of pounds to attract enterprises to Wales and provide financial support for them.  They are often larger headline companies.  These companies have no loyalty to Wales.  Mostly the Welsh government puts the money in and elsewhere someone else takes it out.

Most of these businesses do not generate wealth for Wales, other than the jobs they create.  Those jobs can be lost in a boardroom meeting far away.

In future Wales Govt, when injecting money, must ensure an adequate financial return.

Wales has only received, per capita, 75% of the UK average investment in research and development.  And, per capita, 75% in investment in infrastructure and transport.

Wales has only received 1% of UK investment in rail despite having 11% of the UK network.

This lack of investment has clearly retarded Wales development.

Wales has world leading medical and scientific researchers, it also has innovators as shown by the small company working on hydrogen powered vehicles.

Wales is very good at this level, but less good at the development and production related to this research and innovation.  It is generally others that have gained.

This is an area of great potential for the Welsh economy and Wales must be much more proactive here.

A government of Wales will need to be more positive and involved to create jobs through the creation of enterprises.

Public procurement of goods and services in Wales is worth over £6 billions per year.

The NHS in Wales spends about £1.6 billion per year on equipment and services. 

 ( not including the abnormal spending for coronavirus ).  Many  companies in Wales adapted their outputs , helping the production of PPE, in the present crisis.  Some of these companies should be encouraged to continue in what is a  multi million pound market, with the potential to develop a significant export market.

Already this market and these Welsh producers have become the subject of interest  from investment companies across the border, to add to their portfolios.

This cannot be allowed to happen. Investment and development in this area should be for the benefit of Wales and Welsh business, not profiteering by others.

Procurement by public bodies in Wales is subject to regulations set down by UK government.  New Wales will no longer be restrained by those rules and should actively practice positive discrimination towards Welsh based companies in its procurement policy.

Tourism in Wales is a major business. It is worth about £6 billion per annum.

Wales spends less on promoting tourism and Wales attraction than any other UK nation.  Far less.

Wales attracts less tourists than the other UK nations.

Tourism is an area of great potential growth.

Also tourism is an industry where most of the spending accrues to Wales.

It is an area where more support must be directed.  It's an economic imperative.

The Welsh government has been told in various studies that Wales is seen as a relaxing and beautiful place.  However these are qualities that they share with competitor areas such as the Lake district, West Country, Scotland and Ireland.

Wales is seen less favourably as places for young people and unbelievably not as a place for festivals, arts and culture.. Knowledge and awareness of Wales is weak among international tourists.

What have the Welsh government and tourist bodies been doing.

The Welsh government happily pours millions into companies like Ford to protect 3000 jobs, yet an industry worth billions and employing over 150000 people is underfunded..

If the Welsh government had someone who could count it would be helpful.

Wales is one of a few European countries without a tourist tax.  If Wales set a charge of just £1 per night, it would raise about £10 million per year.

This money could then be used to increase the wages of low paid workers in the tourist and hospitality sector and help with training.

Workers with greater incentive and skills, will help towards a more attractive and professional tourist and hospitality experience for visitors.

Transport and Exports.

The Welsh public voted recently for the view that there is a better world beyond Europe.

By the same argument there is a better world beyond England.

Of course England is an important market, but not the only market and arguably not the most important.

If we become over reliant on contact with England, trade with England, it is conceivable, indeed likely we will lose more favourable markets elsewhere.

There is no suggestion of severing links with England, but future relationship must be on a more equitable basis, with the priority what's best for Wales.

As inevitably,  Wales links with Europe and beyond, became stronger and contact more regular.  Wales must prepare for this, develop new thinking.

International trade and diplomatic links are beyond this brief resume.

Some ideas though.

Welsh container ports must be developed.

Presently goods from Wales and. indeed Ireland, are transported across Wales and England to be ferried to Europe or by container farther afield.,

A medium sized container ship leaving from one of the many Welsh ports capable of such traffic, can carry the equivalent of 12000 lorry loads.

New Wales, new thinking.

A summary.

This is not nor is it meant to be, a comprehensive business plan for an independent Wales.

It is an invitation to all interested, to add their ideas. It is the start of something much bigger.

It has shown however, that Wales has nothing to fear in striking out on it's own.  Indeed it shows there is everything to gain,

Wales is not to small, indeed it size can be a positive advantage. Countries of a similar size are doing very well thank you.  Smaller countries such as Litchenstein and Monte Carlo, who produce nothing material and yet are wealthy countries. Its about maximising resources.

Wales is not poor.  The potential for wealth creation is huge.

The trick for Wales is to prevent others from taking it.

Wales can control its its own destiny. It is not a Utopia, but an economic and political reality.

The purpose.  To create a fair and equitable society and improve the welfare of all.

Independence is within our grasp.

The first step is to reach a target of 40% public support. Once that target is reached Independence is inevitable.

Just think, that means that each of the 450000 (21%) supporters, needs to convince just ONE other person. How difficult is that.

Don't take any notice of the noise around you that's just politicians afraid to poke their heads out of their shells, or the pro union media and the irrelevant Tories.

So we are ready to go,

Now for the bad news.

Politicians with  vision and courage to break old ties, are in short supply in Wales. So it will either take a road to Damascus moment for the present lot. Or a new breed willing to put themselves forward. Do it you have everything to gain.

Listen to the words of the late, great John Hume " You are in politics to get things done not to chase votes ".

The good news is that we don't actually have to do anything.

Mark Drakeford. Wales First Minister, has repeatedly said.  " The Union is a voluntary association of Nations ".

So all he has to do is read this and tell Boris that, thanks very much, but we have a better deal.  We will get back to him when we are ready to discuss trade arrangements etc.