The economy of an Independent Wales

                or.

Wales wealth, how to get it and how to use it,

Currency and the Federal Bank.

Before Currency and the Federal Bank, we need to look once again at Wales ‘ so called ‘ budget deficit, for they are connected.

Wales budget deficit. Does Wales have one, how much is it and does it really matter.

With regard to the first two, no one really knows.

As we have previously seen, but briefly repeat here, the data upon which Wales deficit is based is decidedly untrustworthy.

The deficit repeatedly cited is based on a financial report by the Wales Governance Centre.

That, in turn, uses the data of the Government Expenditure and Revenue Wales

[ GERW ]

The authors concede that very little financial data is collected on a Wales specific basis, but rather England/Wales, or UK wide.

GERW is not a conventional accountancy process, indeed it is argued that 90% of the figures used have no verifiable audit trail. 

Spending for Wales is generally allocated on a population share basis, whether or not that can be justified.

Revenue income is collected on a UK wide basis by HMRC. It is then disaggregated to get Wales figures by, in the words of HMRC, using estimates, assumptions and adjustments.

HMRC concedes that Wales revenue figures are an underestimate, as some taxes, mainly corporate taxes,of businesses in Wales, have been allocated to the HQs, many of whom are outside Wales.

They however have failed to estimate the loss to Wales revenues.

The government may argue that GERW is an approved system, but as Prof Murphy of Tax Research argues, if the figures used by the system are suspect, then the outcomes must be suspect.

In Wales' case, indeed they are.

The outcome frome Wales financial analysis, by these methods, find that Wales has a budget deficit of £13.7 billion.

In the same period the UK budget deficit was £39.7 billion.

This means that Wales, with 4.8% of the UK population, is responsible for 35% of the UK deficit.

It makes no sense.

The economy of an Independent Wales.

                       or

Wales wealth, how to get it, how to use it.

It's the economy stupid. So said James Cavelle, Bill Clinton's campaign manager, when asked what they should be stressing.

So it is with Wales in Independence

Wales punches above its weight in many areas.  It can point to world champion fighters,Olympic and world athletic medalists. cycling champions and grand slam rugby champions.

It offers to the world the very best in music, arts and culture

It has stunning scenery, beaches, mountains, rivers and lakes.

It has innovative and resourceful people. 

In spite of all that. Wales suffers economic and financial shortcomings.

Its people are suffering from poor public services, health and social care, education, housing and low wages.

Its businesses from lack of investment and poor productivity

The Welsh government is powerless to change this dire situation.

All the improvements Wales seek cannot be enacted in the present system

It needs more money. It needs to grow the economy..

Under the present system of devolution, the Welsh government cannot grow the economy, they can only manage it. [ The Silk Commission on Devolution ].

Devolution cannot grow the Welsh economy.

An Independent Wales can.

This will show you how.

The Future of Wales Report. [ Or take your pick ]

The Independent Commission on Wales Future Constitution, has issued its final report, so we can all stop holding our breath.

It's a wordy document. 135 pages

It has an impressive bibliography referencing a seemingly endless supp;y of publications.

It has had contributions from an equally impressive list of worthies.

And it has an expert panel

It was enough to almost overwhelm. Almost, but not quite.

What was striking, that in spite of this, they were unable to come to conclusions.

Not just that they were unable to come down just a teeny bit in favour of one option, but in most areas.

The report is heavy, to use the phrase of the economist Arun Bose, on errors of reasoning.

It also contained a fair share of contradictions and also, I'm afraid, substantial errors.as we shall show.

It is beyond the scope of this modest piece to analyse in detail and the intention is to concentrate on the Commission's approach to the Independence option, but it would be remiss not to have a little comment on the other options and the shortcomings of the report.

As the report is 135 pages long, with apologies, the response is inevitably lengthy.

How can Welsh Labour govern, if it doesn't understand the basics.

A lifetime of being a very small part of the UK. A very small part of UK Labour. And for the trade unionists, a very small part of the UK trade union movement, has led Welsh Labour to the mindset of being very small.

The government of Wales, which has been exclusively Welsh Labour. No more than that of running a county council [ no offence to county councillors ].

.

They are given a grant together with limited ability to raise finance. Just like a county council.

They set up little committees to divide it up. Just like a county council.

They share it between areas for which they have responsibility. Just like a county council.

And for their peace of mind they have someone above them to blame. Just like a county council.

 

They have persuaded themselves, or have been persuaded, that Wales cannot survive on its own

They argue that Wales is only safe if it is ‘ protected ‘ by belonging to the UK Union.

Waiting for Godot [ Samuel Beckett ]

Performed by members of the Welsh Government Amateur Dramatic Players.

Introduction.

Mark Drakeford, Wales First Minister is stepping down and will be replaced in March 2024. Just three months away.

Is his leaving a cause for celebration, particularly for the Independence cause.

Mark Drakeford is not only Wales First Minister, but also the leading supporter of a mystical sect called the ‘ Union ‘. 

It is a mystical sect for no one really knows why it exists,  its members are tied together by such vague concepts as ‘ common culture’, ' common history’, ‘ better together ‘. and by some unidentified ‘ insurance policy ‘.

No material or quantifiable advantages are offered.

The ‘ Union’ it seems is held together by blind faith.

There is another group offering ‘ Independence’, but to belong to that, the ‘ Unionists ‘ say, would bring about  pestilence, famine and swarms of locusts.

So with Mark Drakeford gone. What next?

The Commission on the Constitutional future of Wales . What a waste !

The report on the ‘ consultation ‘ on the future Wales Constitution, is about to be published. 

Two years in the making and a cost of millions

So what do we expect from this latest Welsh government indulgence.

Well, we do know that the independent Commission doesn't have the powers to implement any findings.

It will not be recommending one option over another

That the report will be inconclusive.

The report will be open to interpretation, the worst position of all..

Its attempts to engage with the Welsh public over this subject has failed and therefore its legitimacy. Phase 1 showed this.

Come on Mr Drakeford. Let us into the secret.

It's no secret that Wales is in a mess

The recent budget cuts, on top of the health and social care already in crisis.

Education services are struggling.

Affordable homes shortage.

Low wages.

Local services are regularly cut.

Business productivity is continually low.

Stagnating economy.

Can't afford to do this, can't afford to do that.

It's no secret Wales is in a mess

What the First Minister and Welsh Labour government are doing to resolve this mess, now that's a secret.